Bhattarai will pay an official visit to India from 20-23 October at the invitation of Prime Minister of India Manmohan Singh. This would be his first official visit to India after taking charge as prime minister. [break]Earlier, the prime ministers of the two countries had met on the margins of the 66th UN General Assembly in New York on September 24.
During his India visit, Bhattarai would be holding talks with his Indian counterpart as well as call on the president and meet other Indian dignitaries. He would also interact with representatives of the Indian business community, civil society leaders and intellectuals.
The Indian Ministry of External Affairs has stated that Prime Minster Bhattarai´s visit will provide an “opportunity for both sides to discuss issues of mutual interest and ways to further strengthen the bilateral ties between the two countries.” On the eve of the visit, Republica has taken a look at the key issues for official talks and the likely outcome of the visit.
POLITICAL
Indian officials say India attaches symbolic importance to the visit of a Maoist premier to India at a crucial time in Nepal´s political transition. India wants to see successful completion of the peace process and constitution writing in Nepal and thus would extend its full support in this direction. Sources said that India wants to see the present government being transformed into a national consensus one.
Secondly, Bhattarai is coming to India in his first official visit to another country. It did not go down well with India when Maoist Chairman and then prime minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal chose to visit China before coming to India.
Civil society members in Delhi also attach symbolic significance to the visit. “Symbolically, Dr Bhattarai is coming to India first and that too at the most crucial time facing the peace process and constitution making in Nepal,” said Sudhindra Bhadoria of the South Asian Forum for People´s Initiative, which is organizing an interaction for Bhattarai with representatives of Indian civil society and media during his visit.
“India would wait to see the result of the November 30 deadline for the Constituent Assembly before extending any significant support package to Dr Bhattarai,” a highly-placed source told Republica, adding, “However, India will extend all out support for the success of the peace process in Nepal.”
POWER TRADE
Power import and a power trade agreement are one of the major agenda items for the PM´s visit. Nepal is set to request 200 MW in additional power supply from India. At present India supplies 50 MW to Nepal.
However, there may be a setback as Nepal´s current transmission line capacity is far less. There is only one 132 KV line from India, at Gaddachowki, and it doesn´t have the capacity to import an additional 200 MW. Experts say one more 132KV line, at the Raxual-Birgunj juncture, is needed for the proposed power purchases to materialize.
MILITARY
No military agenda has so far figured in the PM´s agenda as a meeting with the Indian defense minister has yet to be confirmed. Knowledgeable sources told Republica that such a meeting is “yet to be worked out.”
Resumption of military supplies to the Nepal Army was a matter taken up most strongly by the Madhav Kumar Nepal government. The Indian side has asked for a written request from Nepal for this. But given the sensitivity of the matter and its impact on the peace process, Dr Bhattarai is “less-likely” to include this in his agenda.
SECURITY
Indian sourses said that they will reiterate their security concerns in Nepal. The issues of cross-border crime, circulation of fake Indian currency notes, signing of strip maps, extradition treaty, mutual legal assistance and stationing of air marshals at Tribhuwan International Airport will be taken up by India.
“There might be discussions on security issues and joint mechanisms but a deal may not be finalized on this visit,” said Nihar Nayak of the IDSA (Indian Defence and Security Ananlysis), an Indian government-backed thinktank in Delhi.
Similarly, the security of Indian investments in Nepal will be stressed by the Indian side, given the series of attacks on Indian joint ventures. It is “likely” that discussions would be held in the light of media reports in Nepal on the likelihood of a review of hydropower deals between Nepal and some Indian companies such as GMR and Sutlej, which are developing mega projects.
The source further said, “The plausible links between the Indian and Nepali Maoists could also be brought up during the meetings”, given the escalation of the Maoist insurgency in India.
ECONOMIC COOPERATION
Nepal and India could most likely work out a package for financial and technical assistance during the PM´s visit. “India could extend a special package like the one offered to Bangladesh recently,” Nayak added.
Although trade, commerce, investment and hydropower issues will be discussed on the basis of mutual benefit, no concrete memorandum is expected to come out of the visit. However, Nepal and India will sign a bilateral deal worth $250 million--a line of credit offered by the Indian government during the visit of President Dr Ram Baran Yadav in February last year.
The credit line, to be channelized through the EXIM Bank, could be used for a swathe of infrastructure projects, including roads and irrigation. “Nepal should seek assistance in infrastructure development,” said Dr Kedar Bahadur Adhikari, minister (economics) at the Nepali embassy in Delhi.
The visit will strengthen the communication gap left open since 2009, when then PM Nepal visited India.
“With Dr Bhattarai there is a better confidence level and thus the Indian prime minister will reassure support to him,” Nihar Nayak said, adding, “After the failure of three successive governments in Nepal, India would like to see the conclusion of peace process this time and it feels that the present government could be converted into a consensus one.”
But the “sense of instability” in Nepal among the Indian leadership would prevent any generous assistance at this stage.
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