India knows there is no such thing as 100% consensus. At the same time, it does not want to be caught in the middle if the constitution is proclaimed one day, followed by riots the next.South Block's dilemma is underscored by the feedback it is receiving from the ground in Nepal; that the earthquake reconstruction effort has not been effective enough because the politicians have been too busy "making a constitution".
Such sentiment could undermine public support for the constitution which Delhi sees as a vital document, vital for establishing the political and institutional parameters that will enable governance, bring equity and justice to the Nepali people. In Delhi's view, these have been largely missing from the Nepali discourse.
Yet, South Block is acutely aware that the constitution in its current form has its share of detractors. The extreme right and the extreme left are not okay with it. There's the dissatisfaction voiced by the Madhesi parties that feel marginalized in the current process.
"Comparatively, they were better off the last time when they were with the Nepali Congress," admits K V Rajan, former Indian ambassador to Kathmandu. "But it hasn't helped that they are themselves divided."
At the last count there were 34 Madhesi parties mostly at odds with each other. Clearly, the shine has gone off their claim to be sole representatives of the people of the Terai. Today, the Nepali Congress has 57 Madhesi MPs, and other parties also have Madhesi representatives.
Madhesi disunity has deepened their insecurites over what the draft constitution will deliver on their demand for a federal polity. Former Nepali prime minister Sher Bahadur Deuba, during his recent visit to Delhi, referred vaguely to eight provinces, indicating that a "federal commission" would determine their "regional viability", and also address issues relating to identity based provinces, language, culture and so on. Clearly, there is room for Madhesi provinces here but again no clarity over how many Madhesi provinces and their borders.
South Block is wary of publicly commenting on this. "We're okay as long as Nepal has a stable polity, a multiparty democracy which means a federal framework, a free media and so on," a senior Indian diplomat said.
There are positives. While secularism is being dropped in favour of a return to its Hindu identity, Nepal is expected to keep the international community on its side by perhaps opting for an India-like arrangement: Hindu nation with a state that does not discriminate against people on religious grounds.
Indian diplomats are telling their Nepali counterparts that consensus on the constitution will clear the decks for movement elsewhere.
They expect the power trade agreement, signed in October last year, to kick off a surge in electricity generation and transmission that would help correct Nepal's trade deficit with India. It could also see movement on the long delayed 6000 megawatt Pancheswar project; then there's road connectivity to be operationalized.
All this of course depending on political will in Kathmandu. What if the constitution making is further delayed?
Delhi is keeping its fingers crossed but diplomats referred to these cryptic lines on the website of the President of India after Prachanda called on Pranab Mukherjee in mid July. "We continue to counsel broad consensus and also urge all parties not to lose momentum."
(The writer is an Indian journalist based in New Delhi)
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