Local people believe that Mustang is getting warmer. Snowfall has been rare, erratic and untimely. In the past, the district used to have plenty of snowfall between December to February but now these months get very little or no snow. Pattern of precipitation has largely changed. The areas now mostly get rain in place of snow. Whatever snowfall is received tends to be pushed to March-April. These all lead to a major change in the way people live and the way they grow crops. While these create some opportunities, negative outcomes dominate the scene which far outweighs the opportunity.
OPPORTUNITIES
Increased temperature means that cultivation of vegetable and apple in the higher altitude has now been possible. Apple that grew mostly in the lower Mustang is now grown in many places in Upper Mustang. The similar can be said of vegetables. One can see apples and vegetables being grown in places like Ghemi and Tsarang of upper Mustang where such products hardly grew before, with support from projects. The warming has also affected the migration pattern. It wasn’t long ago when the people of Upper Mustang would choose to temporarily migrate and engage in business in places like Pokhara, Kathmandu and several Indian cities to avoid the harsh and bitter winter. Today, however, leaving is a choice, not a necessity.
ADVERSITIES
It is striking to note that Jomsom despite its high altitude (2720m) has mosquitoes during the summer. People claim that incidences of sickness and diseases among the population have surged in recent years compared to some years ago when such cases were virtually non-existent.
Apple-growing belt has tended to shift to a higher altitude thus making lower altitude less suitable for these crops. People claim that while they could easily produce healthy apples at altitude as low as Lete (2480m) until a few years ago, the apples now tend to catch worms even in higher altitudes like Larjung (2550m), Kobang (2640m) and Marpha (2670m). The desperate villagers now resort to applying pesticides to save their crops. Some claim that the taste of apple has deteriorated.
The change in the nature of precipitation has a clear implication on housing pattern. One can now see a number of Corrugate tinned or RCC roofed houses in Larjung, Kobang, Marpha and Jomsom all of which, until some years ago, used to be an area with cent percent flat roof houses with mud-stone combination. Such houses were compatible to snowfall as it allowed people to remove the accumulated snow when the pouring stopped. This naturally prevented the chances of roof-leaking thus prolonging the life span of the house. Alas! This mechanism no more works now. Rain replacing the snow means that people are now forced to switch to either corrugated tin-roof or RCC houses. Those who cannot do so will quickly lose their houses because of percolating rain inside.
The expensive tin or RCC materials is imported all the way from Pokhara. This evidently has serious implication both on the cultural and the social landscape. The poor and people in remote areas in particular tend to suffer more by this anomaly owing to cash demand and difficulty in access.
Climate change has also led to landslides. Landslip that suddenly occurred in the upper catchment of Larjung/Kobang in the rainy season of 2001 caused a disastrous flood in Lanque stream. This seriously threatened the lives and settlement of Larjung and Kobang in which three houses and several animals were swept away. The terrified households did temporarily evacuate the dangerous zone, however could not afford to leave the area permanently and returned to the place a couple of years later.
Glacial Lake Outburst related flooding is another major emerging problem. People cannot recall all glacial lake outburst events in the locality. However, they clearly remember that Chhusyar village in Upper Mustang was struck by glacial lake outburst twice-- in 1985 and 1987. The latter one, in particular, had devastating consequences. Three people along with large number of livestock were killed. 35 families were rendered homeless by the calamity, and were moved to Lalim Bagar in Pokhara under the government sponsorship.
Climate change seriously affects the biophysical system such as snow-cover, permafrost, forests and biodiversity. It is good to note that the world has started to realize the serious gap in the Himalayan knowledge system as it may relate to the climate change. While the value of research over the bio-physical attributes cannot be over emphasized, equal emphasis should be places on the people, the ultimate bearer of impending problems.
It is evident that climate change is taking its toll in Mustang and the people who live there. However only a comprehensive study will be able to tell more about its detailed nature and extent, and what effective control measures to be implement. Given that other physiographic regions namely Tarai, Hills and Mountains too, may be facing similar problems, a through research has to be conducted in other physiographic regions. But it needs emphasizing that people and their livelihoods should be at the center of such research in contrast to the current trend that tends to put emphasis on biophysical attributes.
Writer is Joint Secretary at Ministry of Forests and Soil Conservation
baraljc@yahoo.com
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