The earthquake of April 25 and aftershocks thereafter have affected housing, agriculture and livestock, manufacturing, trade, and hotel and tourism sectors, Jishnu Mohan Bhattarai, director of National Accounts Section at CBS, said. "The damage in real estate, renting and business activities would be worth Rs 9.83 billion and loss in the agriculture and forestry will be of Rs 3.5 billion," CBS said in its revised economic growth projection after the earthquake.
According to officials, the new growth projection was prepared after computing reports of damage collected by the Ministry of Home Affairs and loss information compiled via different ministries and agencies.The projected economic growth is the lowest in nine years. Country's economy had grown by 2.75 percent in 2006/07.
Before the earthquake of April 25, CBS had revised economic growth to 4.58 percent owing to the decline in agricultural production from the projected growth of 5.5 percent in the current fiscal year.
Country's total GDP, which was projected to reach Rs 2,161 billion in this fiscal year, will now shrink to Rs 2,125 billion, according to CBS.
"We have projected decline in economic growth as almost all economic activities have been disrupted and will continue to be disrupted in the remaining days of the fiscal year which ends in mid-July," Bikash Bista, director general of CBS, said.
Damage in production and service sector is expected to be worth Rs 51 billion at basic prices. Likewise, per capita GDP will decline by Rs 2,326 to Rs 74,985 in this fiscal year.
Economist Bishwambher Pyakuryal said slowdown in economic growth has been projected due to decline in paddy production in the current fiscal year besides earthquake damage as over 26,000 hectares of fertile land was washed away by the flood in monsoon last year. Pyakuryal thinks the economy will not recover in the coming fiscal year alone. "Quake-induced landslides are likely to affect agriculture output further. It will also have negative impact on economy," added Pyakuryal.
Speaking at a press conference organized on Monday to unveil the revised national accounts of the current fiscal year, Swarnim Wagle, member of National Planning Commission (NPC), said that the national accounts data of CBS is calculated through a rigorous process and they will also be useful in Post Disaster Need Assessment (PDNA).
NPC is separately carrying out PDNA to assess damages by the earthquake and also provide basis for devising plan for reconstruction activities.
Office of the Prime Minister and Council of Ministers (OPMCM) and NPC are devising reconstruction plans to lead country's economy to recovery. A proposal to form a high-level authority for reconstruction is under discussion at OPMCM.
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