Switching sides has now become the norm for leaders of Madhes-based political parties.[break]
With the government all set to announce the date for fresh Constituent Assembly elections, a large number of Madhesi leaders are either mulling to join another party or are involved in bargaining over opportunities.
Ever since the formation of the Madhesi Janaadhikar Forum under the leadership of Upendra Yadav just before the CA election in April 2008, Madhesi politics has been characterized by horse-trading and blame games.
While the bigger Madhesi parties are trying to lure members of smaller ones and independents to strengthen their own organizations, leaders of various smaller Madhesi parties are looking for opportunities within the bigger ones for their political survival. This has led to fragmentation in Madhesi politics, with popular sentiments getting scant attention.
The fallout of this across the gamut of Madhesi parties has left the Madhesi movement much weaker, with more than a dozen parties claiming to be for the Madhesi people.
However, those closely watching Madhesi politics believe that only four Madhesi parties are set to survive in Madhes.
Political analyst Chandra Kishor says that Madhesi leaders have become weak in the eyes of the Madhesi people, and they fear the people might not vote for them in the coming election. "This is the reason why the major Madhesi parties are trying to either lure other parties over or form alliances," he said.
There is no connection between Madhesi leaders and the Madhesi people, feels Kishor. "As the Madhesi leaders have only worked for their own personal gain, the people in Madhes will not support them in the coming election," he said.
According to him, only four major parties are likely to survive as significant entities.
Upendra Yadav´s Madhesi Janaadhikar Forum Nepal (MJF-N), the Madhesi Janaadhikar Forum (Loktantrik) of Bijaya Gachchhedar, Mahanta Thakur´s Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party (TMLP) and Nepal Sadbhawana Party (NSP) led by Rajendra Mahato are in a better position to woo leaders and cadres from the smaller parties.
Senior Madhesi leader and vice president of TMLP Brikhesh Chanda Lal agrees with Kishor that only these four will remain as forces to be reckoned with. The rest of the 30 Madhes-based parties will either fizzle out or merge with one or the other of these four.
Both of them also agree that Madhesi leaders are merging and unifying with different political outfits just to catch popular sentiment and maintain party dignity.
Among the four, Upendra Yadav-led MJF will come out as the main force in Madhes as Yadav has been forming an alliance with non-Madhesi parties, says Kishor. Gachchhedar, Thakur and Mahato will try to remain in the reckoning by strengthening their positions.
Meanwhile, this struggle for survival is getting dirtier, feels Anil Jha, chairman of Sanghiya Sadbhawana Party."Gachchhedar and Mahato are offering millions of rupees to ex-lawmakers to lure them into their parties," he claims.
In the latest instances of switching sides, Mahendra Yadav of TMLP-Nepal is set to join MJF, according to Brishesh Chandra Lal, vice-president of TMLP. "He feels compelled to join MJF as all his colleagues have left him," he claims, adding that the Raj Kishor Yadav-led MJF (Ganatantrik) is likewise going to merge with the Gachchhedar-led MJF(L).
However, Upendra Yadav said that Lal´s claim is doubtful as they are unaware of any such attempts and there have been no approaches from Mahendra Raya Yadav. In an exclusive talk with Republica, Lal claimed that the Raj Kishore Yadav-led MPRF (Gantantrik) is also going to merge with the Gachhedar-led Madhesi People´s Rights Forum (Democratic).
However, Rajeev Jha, central member of Mahato-led NSP, said that unification among Madhesi parties is a healthy exercise to remain in the picture.
It is but natural for the smaller Madhesi parties to merge with the bigger ones for their own survival, say analysts. But not all of them will survive, as the race is narrowing down to the four major parties.
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