Never mind how willing China is to help its small neighbor, which was first battered by the earthquakes, and then shaken to its core by the Indian blockade. As Prime Minister KP Oli touched down in Kathmandu after a week-long state visit to China, the question on everyone's mind was: Is the Oli government committed to the agreements he just signed with China? And what happens if this government is replaced by one led by Nepali Congress? Will Congress, which has traditionally been close to India, be as keen on China? The way we see it, these questions are self-defeating. They would also be superfluous if Nepal had a clearly defined foreign policy based on its national interests. If there was one lesson of the blockade, it was that no sovereign country can completely rely on another country for all its necessities. This is especially true in case of landlocked Nepal, completely surrounded by its two giant neighbors. As Prithi Narayan Shah advised nearly two and a half centuries ago, the survival of Nepali nation-state depends on its ability to carefully balance the influence of India and China.Geography remains constant and so does Nepal's need to maintain a clever balancing act. Thus this course of action must be pursued as a part of our national interest, irrespective of whichever party is in power. After the Indian blockade and the subsequent new openings with China, this is also the perfect time to clearly define our national interests as well as our foreign policy priorities. The priorities for Nepal should be straightforward. In this globalizing world, we should look to build meaningful business ties with as many countries as our resources allow us to. As Nepal currently does 70 percent of its trade with India, another focus of our foreign policy should be to diversify away from it. This invariably means better relations with China. But not just China. Now that we have transit facilities through China, Nepal must try to reach out to countries like Mongolia and Russia that also border China. Even a small volume of trade with third countries via China—in addition to more trade with China itself—will make the Indian establishment think many times before its thinks of imposing another blockade on Nepal.
We must develop our foreign policy instruments accordingly. Let us build a strong institutional base for an interest-based foreign policy. If we can do that, the country will not have to try to play the useless China or India card. Meanwhile, we should also be realistic. Yes, our relations with India have been far from desirable recently. But Nepal, given its precarious geopolitical location, also has no option but to have good relations with India at all times. So in our efforts to reach out to China or any other country, Nepal should be mindful that it does not compromise on vital Indian interests in Nepal. Again, now that the prime minister is back, he should waste no time in keeping Nepal's side of the bargain with China: doing our bit to upgrade our road-links with Tibet, trying to take India into confidence over China, and redoubling our efforts to convince the skeptical Chinese that opening up the now closed Tatopani border won't, in any way, harm its interests. More than that, it is time for Nepal, India and China to explore new avenues of trilateral cooperation, in what will be win-win for all three sides.
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