Nepal may be another “worthless country” in Asia for Donald Trump but the US president does have fan followers here. During his first electoral victory, I read in the social media that a bunch of real-estate dealers in Nepal, somewhere in Lalitpur District, celebrated the victory by throwing a (booze) party. The reason: Being a real estate dealer, he was of their kind! This time, I have not come across such anecdotal news. However, with his second victory, there is no less debate and discussion going around. Reading them is no less entertaining. Usual focus is on issues like possible deportation of illegal Nepalese immigrants, harsher immigration policy, curtailment of US aid, possible impacts of trade war and withdrawal from climate actions. Basically, there are three points of views.
First, we have a breed of Nepali foreign policy experts, who, like an ostrich, love hiding their head under the sand and pretending nothing is happening. Fundamentally, they believe that there will be no changes in US policy towards Nepal. “Business as usual” is their usual mode of thinking. Whichever government comes into power - democrats or republicans - it is immaterial for Nepal, life goes on as usual. Our non-alignment policy, adherence to pancha sheela, equidistance policy, peace loving Nepali people and culture, long historical relations etc. factor into their discussion.
Second, anti-MCC, pro-Hindu and pro-royalists, literally, love basking under Trump’s inward looking, ethno-centric, nationalistic policy. For them, Trump’s victory comes as a sweet music or a blessing in disguise. We don’t need MCC, we don’t need dollar-backed NGOs, without US aid, we will develop on our own, proselytizers are out, third-genders are out, identity politics is out, now, we will have a pure Hindu state. Like MAGA, we do have Nepal First dreamers. The royalists still feel offended by the then US Ambassador, Mr James Moriarty commenting “King clinging onto a helicopter” at the last hour of regime change in 2006.
Insults and interruptions mar first Trump-Biden debate
Third, the scaremongers. They assume the sky is going to fall upon us, a big disaster to happen. How are we going to survive sans US money? What will be the fate of MCC? The INGOs and NGOs and thousands of people employed? Literally, they are in a panic mode.
I suppose the real truth lies somewhere in between these extreme view points. Assuming the business as usual model is as absurd as the sky is going to fall upon us. The US being the top-most donor country; second country in ranking for our exports and a dreamland for Nepali students and foreign employment seekers, the growing Nepali diaspora in the US, including Bhutanese refugees of Nepali origin, definitely, polity changes in US is going to affect us - direct as well as indirect, positive as well as negative, immediate as well as enduring.
I suppose the most logical point will be to ask: What will be the fate of MCC? So far, so good. We have not heard anything bad about MCC. A $50 million project is already underway substantially and cannot be reverted. Moreover, it was signed during Trump’s first tenure. The MCC is a time-bound project; slight irritation could cast dark shadows in its implementation bringing serious economic and political consequences. The MCC predators are already on prowl. It is being pitted with BRI. The danger is not so much from outside but from inside.
The second important point of concern is the curtailment of USAID funding. This is going to have a direct and an immediate impact. A conservative estimate puts 300-400 NGOs to be affected by possible fund withdrawal. It is too much to call USAID a criminal organization. However, insignificant, some impact can be felt in US support to the Nepali Army.
Obviously, the third concern is the harsh immigration policy to be imposed by the Trump administration. Already, more than thousand Nepalese are listed for deportation. Nobody knows for sure how many are staying or working illegally inside the US. Strict immigration policies have both costs and benefits. If, on one hand, it will help reduce human trafficking and cheating of immigrants then, on the other, it may also result in unintended consequences of people opting more risky routes.
A more strategic, far more enduring impact comes from the US pursuing aggressive foreign policy like trade war, withdrawal of climate support and spoiling of US-China relations in particular. Being Nepal’s immediate neighbour, cooling relations with China may risk the problems of Tibetan refugees in Nepal. Hard with China and soft with India policy may drag Nepal into the vortex of US-China-India strategic relationship. Either by design or default, the US taking a hard line with China, in tandem with India, may drift Nepal towards the Chinese fold. Trump helping to end the Russia-Ukraine war may help save the lives of Nepali youths who have joined, albeit clandestinely, the Russian army. Who knows some Nepalese youths may be fighting for Ukraine?
In the past, the US profoundly impacted Nepal’s development policies like banning ganja (marijuana) cultivation and initiating family planning and resettlement programs. The US is also blamed for popping up the king-led Panchayat System, which was abolished in the wake of the mass movement in the 1990s. To add insult to injury, some conspiracy theorists also blame the US for the rise of the Maoist movement in Western Nepal - as a result of banning ganja cultivation.
In a nutshell, the coming four years of Trump’s tenure will be a tumultuous period for Nepal, at least, from the point of view of foreign policy dynamics. Definitely, there are shifting of relations in foreign policy, but one lesson is clear: Uncle Sam is not a predictable partner. Obviously, reliability is associated with predictability.
