If there is one thing that we can learn from the now officially lifted unofficial Indian blockade it is that we should not pin our hopes on China, in case something like this happens again. Forget about lessons and what needs to be done being espoused by many these days—diversifying our trade, getting 33 percent of our fuel supplies from China and access to the Chinese ports, or as some overly enthusiastic scholars argue, getting access to the markets of Central and East Asia through our northern neighbor and other fantastic ideas. China has made it very clear that these ideas are not in line with its "interests" in a series of symbolic gestures. It is our fault that we did not pick up the signals effectively.We asked for fuel supplies and the Chinese responded with, wait, you may be graced with a visit by our "core" leader Xi Jinping (officially, the Chinese have started to refer Xi as their core leader these days). And we all went gaga as if it solved our problems. Editorials were written, including in this daily, advising the government to make all preparations to welcome the Chinese President. Perhaps in the excitement we forgot that if the Chinese side feels that Nepal is important for its overall economic and strategic concerns high-level visits from China would take place as routine diplomatic affairs.
Even more ironically, we were given 10,000 induction stoves in grant, to a country that witnesses over 13 hours of power outage every day. Besides the assurance of a probable visit and 10,000 induction stoves, we got 2.6 million liters of petrol in grant, not even enough to sustain a day's traffic in Kathmandu. That was all the help we got from China. In retrospect if our analysts, if bureaucrats and political leaders had understood our geopolitical and other realities, and acted with tact with India, the blockade may have never happened, or it would have been lifted far earlier, saving us from an impending economic catastrophe. The blockade was nonsensical to begin with and our reaction too cannot be said to be "rational".
The overdose of nationalism is partly to blame for our reaction but mainly it was the mistaken belief that China can and easily and willingly replace India in Nepal—and many political leaders and analysts who are frequent visitors to Beijing promoted it as such, leading our government to make a mockery of itself in Beijing.
The Deputy PM and Foreign Minister Kamal Thapa's China visit last December was a total failure. He could neither meet the President nor the PM. The Chinese side did not commit to anything. The only commitment from Beijing was "it will seriously consider" and "further discuss" Nepal's requests for agreements such as BIPPA and others. It did not even accept our demand to establish a consulate in Guangzhou; instead it told us to establish one in Chengdu. We willingly obliged. Moreover, to appease the Chinese, we even waived the visa fee for Chinese tourists. Normally, visa-related decisions are made after a thorough consideration and negotiations and the country issuing free visas to the citizens of another country expects the same for its own citizens while traveling to that country.
However, China is yet to waive visa fees for Nepalis going to China. Now, if the government is serious about damage control and not make us a laughing stock globally, it can review the decision made in haste and make the offer valid for three months only. Or it can ask the Chinese to reciprocate in kind, or we should work toward waiving visa fees for all Asian countries, if not all countries in the world.
The time calls for a level-headed assessment of Chinese actions, or inactions, if you will. As many have already pointed out, the Chinese side calculated that antagonizing India over Nepal is not in its best interest. And from the security perspective, China probably feels that in case there is war with India and it needs to mobilize its troops through Nepal, it can easily overrun our defense, so there is no reason for it to provide us any real help. It is not to say that a war between the two is imminent, or a certainty, but that does not necessarily mean it may not happen. For propaganda purposes, it has been providing us with token help. It has achieved a lot with little investment.
The Chinese are, as the world calls them, pragmatic. Now we need to appear practical in dealing with them if we hope to be taken a bit more seriously by them. Our options are many.
First of all we need to do away with the thinking that China will replace India in Nepal. This will automatically lead to closer and better ties with India and the chances of another blockade will drastically reduce. Once the misgivings are cleared between India and Nepal, and once the era of constructive partnership between the two begins (provided the Indians change their Nepal policy), China for us will be what we are currently for China—just another neighbor.
Second, we need to stop acting as if China is the only foreign aid provider to Nepal. We can take loans and ask for grants from other countries and channel the remittance received in national development through an effective Public Private Partnership mechanism. To begin with, we must assert that we need a consulate in Guangzhou, not Chengdu. And if the Chinese-made aircrafts are becoming a liability for our national flag carrier, as news reports suggest, send those back.
But most importantly our leaders and analysts should stop looking at China with their rose-tinted glasses and hence act as spin doctors of the Chinese government. We need to accept that China is neither good nor bad; it is a normal country that takes its national interests seriously. And Nepal, as recent Chinese reaction clearly showed, figures nowhere in its designs. Therefore, the first step to practical dealing with China would be to not expect it to replace or balance India in Nepal and our leaders should make it clear that they do not need China's blessings or support to assume high positions. Nor will the Chinese be unnecessarily dragged into our internal affairs or in our relations with India. The pragmatic Chinese would accept that gladly. Perhaps they are waiting for us to say that loud and clear. Let's do them and ourselves that favor.
trailokyaa@yahoo.com
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