It's difficult debating with Madheshi Morcha leaders. If you say India has imposed blockade they will respond 'don't drag India into it, we have done it.' Or 'why don't you talk to India then?' Say that people are suffering, innocent Madheshis including police personnel are being killed, ambulances are being torched and bridges destroyed and they will say 'it's all because of the government.' If you pester them with questions, they retort in anger 'so lives of Madheshis do not count for you, so they are not Nepali enough?' Arguments fail.Morcha has made it a point to provoke security forces to retaliate so that more innocent Madheshis are killed for Morcha to cash in. The atmosphere is charged, emotions running high, and intolerance has crossed all limits.
Meanwhile, it is worthwhile to revisit, once again, the arguments Morcha has been presenting as keys to resolution of crisis and if they help at all.
Often those who oppose Morcha violence are accused of being ignorant of ground realities. Why do you not understand special beti-roti (blood and bread) relations of Madheshis with India? They ask.
It is true that Madheshis have special relations with India. A number of families marry across the border and a number of others bring brides home from there. Families in border regions have their relatives living in and across Nepal border. During festivals, people cross to border towns to purchase essentials because they are way cheaper there than in Nepal. The state cannot force its citizens to severe such 'special' ties. Problem starts when you conflate this relation with citizenship provisions.
There are internationally accepted norms on citizenship. A foreign national gets citizenship of another country after going though certain processes (such as first abandoning the citizenship of the country of birth). To say that such norms should not apply to Indian brides married to Madheshi youths would be like saying India and Nepal are part of the same country. Or we need to institute the system of dual citizenship.
Even while we are said to have a rigid citizenship policy for foreigners thousands of Indians have acquired it—consider recent Navbharat Times report about twenty thousand Indians of border towns with Nepali citizenship and Indian Home Minister Raj Nath Singh's claim last month that there are 10 million Indians residing in Nepal's Madhesh. Further relax the citizenship policy and we are in serious trouble.
Morcha argues that they do not own this constitution because it is discriminatory, and it has nothing for Madheshis. This is a selective reading of the documents they cite to drive their points home.
For one, the fact that Morcha has imposed a virtual ban on discussion about new constitution shows it is not as discriminatory as claimed. Broadly, if you own up national charter or not depends on whether the state delivers on its promises—jobs, development, freedom, rule of law, equality. In this context, a vast majority of people do not own it up not because it has nothing good to offer them but because it makes so many promises they doubt the state will be able to deliver any.
Morcha has also misread past agreements and Interim Constitution vis-à-vis federalism—the real bone of contention. The 22-point agreement with Madheshi People's Right Forum Nepal promises to "create an environment enabling all Nepalese people, inclusive of Madheshis, to join the single national mainstream and federal structure" and to "establish a commission of experts for state restructuring." It states that "provision shall be made for a federal governance system with autonomous provinces/states" but assigns Constituent Assembly the right to determine "rights of the autonomy." The document is silent on demarcation of provinces. Invoking this incomplete deal will take us nowhere.
The 2008 deal with United Democratic Madheshi Front mentions "federal structure with autonomous regions, including the Madheshi people's aspiration for an autonomous Madhesh state." But like 22-point pact, it also accepts supremacy of CA to determine "full details" of the states and division of power between them" (for more about these agreements visit http://issat.dcaf.ch/content/download/1943/16667/file/From Conflict to Peace in Nepal Peace Agreements 2055-10 - ASPECT, Wakngawa (201).
Another document Morcha cites to justify their federalism demand is Interim Constitution 2007, Article 138 of which recognizes "aspirations" of people of Madhesh, "for autonomous provinces," but which also mentions "Constituent Assembly shall determine the number, boundary, names and structures of the autonomous provinces." Even if federalism dispute is to be resolved based on these documents, Morcha will have to accept CA's supremacy first.
Morcha has been constantly shifting goal posts since major parities struck the 16-point agreement in June this year. It was opposed to letting the Federal Commission resolve boundary dispute and demanded, citing the Interim Constitution, that it be done through CA proper. And when CA did do it, Morcha walked out.
Morcha has thrown a new card now. It wants report of Committee on State Restructuring and Distribution of Powers of CA I and that of High Level State Restructuring Commission to be the main basis for demarcating Madhesh provinces (from Mechi to Mahakali). The first had proposed 14-provinces with two states in Madhesh—Lumbini-Awadh Tharuwan and Mithila-Bhojura-Koch-Madhesh. The second proposal in a way was endorsement of first, with minor alterations.
Both the reports were highly contested which led to the dissolution of CA. They are invalid today. Revisiting the same failed proposals will create more problems. The current standoff between Morcha and K P Oli government seems to have hardened due, primarily, to Morcha's fury and hatred of the latter. So it won't be a surprise if it throws a new card—resignation of Oli government as precondition for talks. After all, this is what Nepali Congress and India also want. But the nature of Morcha's demand is such it requires broad consensus among parties. Oli or his successor alone can do nothing about it.
Meanwhile, India is getting good excuse to prolong blockade and Morcha is getting good excuse to continue with violent protests. The nonperformance of Oli pales in significance. Morcha/India highhandedness is such that anything you say against it suo moto becomes defense of the government.
If Morcha wants the resolution of crisis and cares about suffering of Madheshis and Pahadis, it must look into federalism agenda holistically, accept supremacy of CA, stop blockade (if it's really imposed by them) and let life get back to normal. Public opinion will be in their favor and Oli government will be forced to be flexible.
Since there is no possibility of this anytime soon, we can only speculate the worst. Morcha might declare that they don't care about provisions in past agreements but won't settle for anything less than detaching entire Madhesh from hill. Another possibility is that Morcha will capitalize on growing support in Madhesh and demand referendum for 'only Madhesh province.' Yet another possibility is to let agitation get more violent. An Indian newspaper, Mail Today, reported last week that Morcha is running training camps across the border for violent retaliation against the state.
In that case the government will either have to capitulate to Morcha/India or declare state of emergency in Madhesh and mobilize Nepal Army. India won't stand as a mute spectator. It could mobilize its own army citing border security. Geja Sharma Wagle, Nepal's security analyst, does not rule out this possibility. "In worst-case scenario, yes," he told me over the phone. Referring to recent statements of India's Ministry of External Affairs, Wagle said "it increasingly seems India wants to let crisis deepen so that it will get an excuse to openly intervene." Let us hope it won't reach that far.
Some might cheer on the intervention as well. But history will judge us all: those who wished for it, those who instigated it and those who pushed the country to this stage.
mahabirpaudyal@gmail.com
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