According to the report, population in the SAARC region is expected to rise from 1.7 billion in 2014 to 1.9 billion in 2018, with mobile penetration reaching to 208 percent of the population in 2018.
Dataxis has estimated that India and Pakistan will be the two leading markets in terms of mobile subscriber growth in 2018. Both these markets together will contribute to 1.2 billion mobile subscribers by 2018. The rest of the SAARC regions will reach a total of 304 million mobile subscribers during the same period, according to the report.
“The mobile subscribers will constitute 98 percent of the total number of telecommunication access lines, as predicted for 2018. Hence, mobile segment with growing 3G, 4G and mobile data will spur growth momentum in the SAARC telecommunications market,” says the report.
According to the Dataxis, telecom access line in SAARC region is expected to grow from 1.3 billion lines in 2014 to 1.6 billion active lines in 2018. Dataxis estimates that the total telecommunication revenue will grow from US$ 45 billion in 2014 to US$ 59 billion in 2018.
The report estimates that 3G subscribers will gain traction in these markets and will represent 24 percent of mobile subscribers in 2018 from a mere 10 percent in 2014.
“The uptake of 4G services will begin to increase from 2016 onwards, with many operators especially in India planning to launch 4G in 2016-17. Number of 4G subscribers will grow to over 100 million in 2018 from a mere 0.4 million in 2014,” the report added.
Nepal is preparing to launch 4G service with two operators -- Nepal Telecom and Ncell - prepared to provide the service if the telecom regulator, Nepal Telecommunications Authority (NTA), gives green signal.
The report further says that fixed line subscribers will decline further, as seen globally with the exception of Nepal market. Fixed line subscribers will reduce from 42 million in 2014 to 34 million in 2018.
Dataxis estimates that the broadband sector will exceed the 40 million accesses mark in 2018, a figure which represents a 33 percent increase when compared to 2014. Similarly, the firm estimates that 8 percent of households in the regional will be broadband enabled in 2018 from 6 percent in 2014.
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