With the constitution drafting deadline just two weeks away, the cacophony of the country’s contentious politics has suddenly taken the form of deafening silence, even as the dark clouds of pessimism and uncertainty hover in the Nepali political sky. Not that the political parties don’t feel the urgency for talks, but none of them is serious, for taking such initiatives would only weaken its bargaining position. As the crisis peaks, the politicians are preparing to raise their stakes in the power politics and form new political equations by resorting to brinkmanship and blackmailing. After all, politics is not about turning oneself into a pauper; it is all about power. End justifies the means.
DUEL FOR POWER & BRINKMANSHIP
Maoist Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal’s switching over to the line of revolt in November and swinging back to the line of peace in April only throw light on the dual character he constructed for himself for self-aggrandizement. Last November, Dahal tried to cut his arch rival Vice-Chairman Dr Baburam Bhattarai down to size, though unsuccessfully, and consolidate his organizational hold on the party by setting Senior Vice-Chairman Mohan Baidya against Bhattarai. And last April, he got the support of Bhattarai to overturn the mandate of the Palungtar plenum – making preparations for revolt to capture state power.
With the feeling of a badly cheated person, Baidya, the leader of the hard-line camp, is now groping for a political direction, while Bhattarai, who leads the moderates, now looks a bit comfortable in the party. But the tricky question is: How will his relations with Dahal unfold? Though Bhattarai was forced to join hands with Dahal to salvage the line of peace, he is likely to keep intact his tactical alliance with a group of the Baidya faction to clip the wings of Dahal in times of necessity.
These intra-party tussles will have repercussions on the power politics outside. The relations between Dahal and Bhattarai is likely to strain further as the names of both leaders will come to the fore as party’s prime ministerial candidates for a national unity government. If Baidya group supports Bhattarai, the latter will have a chance to head the government with the backing of the Nepali Congress (NC) and the Madhes-based parties. But the moves of the hard-line faction and the subsequent responses from Dahal are yet to be seen. Dahal would make all the possible moves to prevent Bhattarai from becoming the prime minister, creating ripples inside and outside the party.
It is sad to note that all the major political actors in Nepal have mastered the art and craft of blackmailing in their quest for power, but it is also true that they are familiar with the politics of survival.
On the other, is there any chance of Dahal becoming the prime minister? Not until the integration process of the PLA moves ahead and reaches an “irreversible stage” so that the Maoists could no longer use the issue as a bargaining chip. But Dahal is not a man to give up hope so easily. In fact he has been desperately waiting for the looming constitutional crisis in May when the parties would be forced to make some sorts of political arrangements, paving the way for a new power equation.
In fact, he has already told the parties about his “bold decision” that has made it possible to materialize the much-needed peace and stability in the country. And he has also, not surprisingly though, stopped launching vitriolic polemics against the “parliamentary political parties” which, in the words of the Maoists, represent the interests of the “reactionaries”, both domestic and international. Dahal is trying hard to convince the other parties to let him become the prime minister after Jhalanath Khanal and he would agree to the preparation of a draft constitution and the “regrouping” of the PLA, but to no avail. He made a somewhat similar proposal while extending the CA term last year, but that failed to impress others. The circumstances have not changed since then, and as the other parties have not responded to his proposal positively, he has his own method for blackmailing. He is confident that NC would not take the blame for dissolution of the CA by not supporting its extension. And his line is clear: Either the NC should back him to become the prime minister or he would let the Khanal-led coalition last indefinitely.
And what is Khanal’s take on May 28? He is a man sitting under the sword of Damocles; he is a confused person. Accompanied by his superjumbo team of 30, he is currently participating in a meeting of the LDCs and will spend some extra days taking a tour of the historic city. If the parties reach an agreement, his days are gone. So, the trip is a good getaway for him to avoid the unpleasant negotiation on power-sharing at home. So why take an initiative to convene the meetings of the parties, which may lead to his resignation outright? Khanal is confident that the NC would lend support to the CA term extension at any cost, and knows the art of blackmailing. The longer the stalemate, the higher is his chance of holding on to the post of prime minister, though he has already proven himself an incompetent one.
Then, will the NC be blackmailed? No. The grand old party has too many seasoned politicians. The NC leaders, who are busy with their awareness and peace campaign, have already threatened to go against the CA term extension. While the NC may really change its current posture and opt for the term extension, the Maoists should not forget that the NC feels perfectly okay even if the country is to revive the 1990 constitution which, according to the party, enshrines “all the universal principles of democracy and is one of the excellent constitutions of the world”. On top of that, the NC is well-aware that it will have enough moral ground not to extend the CA term without some sorts of agreement on peace and constitution. The party too knows how to blackmail the Maoists.
And, let’s not talk much about the so-called Madhes-based parties. Once they are out of power, they first go to Delhi and then to Tarai to foment unrest there. They are well aware that blackmailing really works.
POLITICS OF SURVIVAL
It is sad to note that all the major political actors in Nepal have mastered the art and craft of blackmailing in their quest for power, but it is also true that they are familiar with the politics of survival. The current politics of survival began in 2002 to bring the then ambitious monarch to his knee. If the political experiences they garnered after the CA elections in 2008 are anything to go by, the parties must have sensed the pitfalls of breaking the politics of consensus.
They may agree to extend the CA term at the eleventh hour for their survival, but that would not lead to any solutions. They must strike an agreement on peace and constitution before May 28 and then extend the CA term. And the Maoists being the largest political party and at the vanguard of social change must take the lead. They should first negotiate with the NC, which stands at the opposite end of the political spectrum, and stop using the UML, the party of the petty bourgeoisie, as an “useful idiot”. Once the Maoists reach an agreement with the NC, the “genderless party” would automatically fall in line.
And the Maoist chairman has a choice to make: Whether he would hold the peace process a hostage for self-aggrandizement, or adopt flexibility to sail through the difficult political transition successfully. Since the current stalemate will end once the power-sharing agreement is made, he should either let another of his party leaders to head the government if that leads to consensus, or leave the government leadership to NC until the peace process garners momentum and then become next prime minister to hold the first general elections. But sadly, Dahal has not stopped working as a leader with bruised ego. Perhaps, he has not yet learnt a lesson from the sage words of his political guru Karl Marx: “Men make their own history, but they don’t make it as they please.”
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