The rise of Narendra Modi as prime minister is a significant development in India that has seen a single party majority government in the center after decades. Many in Delhi had thought the days of single-party governments in India were long gone and the country had entered an era of coalition governments. However, defying conventional wisdom, the BJP government under Modi was formed in May 2014. Thus India could be expected to witness greater political stability and economic development. The rise of BJP as such has implications not only for India but also for its neighbors and the international community as a whole.Prime Minister Modi evinced strong leadership with a vision for India and South Asia and started new initiatives in both domestic and external affairs. He invited SAARC heads of government to his oath-taking. Even Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif felt obliged to go to New Delhi despite the traditionally strained Indo-Pak relations. Modi himself made a surprise visit to Pakistan on December 25th, 2015, on his way back to New Delhi from Kabul. Thus he is seen as making every possible effort to improve India's relations with its immediate neighbors, even with Pakistan and China. Modi knows that India cannot stand high in the global community if it continues to have difficulties with its neighbors.
Nepal could have built a strong and productive relationship with India, given Modi's goodwill expressed in our Constituent Assembly during his visit in August 2014. He had announced INRs 100 billion in soft loan, in addition to old Indian aid, but that money remains untapped. Another INRs 100 billion was pledged for reconstruction of earthquake-damaged infrastructures. That amount also remains unused. And the reconstruction work has not started even after ten long months after the devastating earthquakes.
KP Sharma Oli and other leaders in Nepal have frustrated their own people and frittered away Modi's goodwill that could have been cashed for the benefit of the two both countries. Even Chinese leaders do not seem happy with the state of affairs in Nepal as is indicated by the recent fruitless visits to China by many of our ministers. The promulgation of new constitution should have been a milestone on Nepal's progress in domestic and foreign arenas. Ironically, the historic document produced by the Assembly elected by the sovereign people has invited more problems than solutions, disappointing people at home as well as our two neighbors. An overwhelming majority of Nepalis feel that the constitution is a philosophically wrong product of a technically right procedure. They had to swallow this bitter pill as they had no other option.
People's discontents are centered on federalism, secularism and electoral system. Their suggestions during opinion-collection campaign in late July 2015 were ignored, so people feel the new document does not reflect their wishes and aspirations. In fact, people's feeling is that the document contradicts their expectations. As a result, its promulgation created bad blood in internal politics and external affairs, especially in Nepal-India relations. The government of Nepal cannot scour the world for success in diplomacy while it fails in its domestic politics. We have to put our house in order first as foreign policy is only an extension of domestic policy.
At the moment, almost all important Nepali leaders seem to have lost credibility with the Indian and Chinese leaderships. Restoring their trust is a challenge. The blockade on Nepal-India border may have been lifted by the people who were tired of this senseless nuisance, but that does not mean that damaged relations between the two governments have been repaired. The bad blood created post-constitution will take a long time to clear. There are too many domestic and diplomatic issues where we differ, and it seems Nepal-India relations have fallen into the same old rut.
Unfortunately, a new chapter of productive relationship, as expected with BJP-led government in India, seems unlikely at the moment. Prime Minister Oli is visiting India at a time when Nepal-India relations are at an all-time low, so not much can be expected in terms of new treaties or agreements. At the moment India itself may not be willing to sign new long-term agreements with Nepal.
The top political leadership as well as the top bureaucracy of India appeared disappointed at the promulgation of new constitution and sided with the Madheshi parties, for whatever reasons, but for the common man in Nepal, the consequences were the same. There does not seem to be meaningful dialogue to resolve the underlying issue.
There is a permanent paranoia in Nepal that is characteristic of any small country surrounded by giant neighbors. Every time top leaders visit our neighbors, Nepali intellectuals advise them not to strike any deal affecting national interests. This is more so in India's case. However, there is little chance of such agreements during the impending visit of Prime Minister Oli to India.
Sincere dialogue is the soul of diplomacy. Prime Minister Oli may try to build trust through such dialogue with the Indian leaders. He may also be advised to understand genuine concerns of India and explain to its leaders Nepal's difficulties and seek their support in overcoming them.
Besides national interests of each country, personal chemistry between leaders can also play an important role in bilateral relations, as we could see in the case of late Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala of Nepal and late Prime Minister Chandrashekhar of India. One has to wait and see what kind of personal chemistry Oli and Modi will be able to establish. There is mutual goodwill between the peoples of Nepal and India. It is the leaders who falter in fostering such warm ties at government level. One can only hope that PM Oli's visit will result in the strengthening of ties at government level and that it will prove to be a successful goodwill visit.
The author is former Permanent Representative of Nepal to the United Nations
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