Targets of average annual growth, people below poverty line, employment generation and electricity generation, among others, cannot be achieved, according to a preliminary review of the first two years of the interim plan.
The plan had set a target of achieving 6 percent economic growth annually. But the review shows average growth stood at only 4.25 percent in the first two years.
Findings of the review were shared in the recent consultations for the concept paper for the 14th three-year plan organized in different parts of the country by the National Planning Commission (NPC).
Average growth rate in the 13th periodic plan is likely to contract at around 3 percent due to the impact of earthquakes coupled with Indian blockade.
Slow public spending until mid-February suggests that there won't be any surprises this year. Public spending would have increased at a healthy rate had the government been able to start reconstruction activities in quake-hit districts.
The 13th plan has set a target of bringing number of people living below poverty line down to 18 percent of the total population by mid-July. However, it is estimated that the number has climbed to around 25.16 percent because of the earthquake. Number of people living below poverty line was at this level before the 13th periodic plan began.
Additional 700,000 people were pushed down the poverty line by the earthquake, according to the Post-Disaster Needs Assessment report prepared by NPC.
Growth in employment generation stood at 2.9 percent by mid-July against the target of 3.2 percent set by the three-year plan. NPC officials are not much hopeful of meeting the target.
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Similarly, the progress is minimal on electricity generation front. The plan has set a target of generating 1,426 MW by mid-July. Only 829.19 MW has been generated in the first two years of the plan. Generation of additional electricity is not possible by mid-July this year.
The government has set a target of generating 10,000 MW in next 10 years.
Progress made in literacy, life expectancy and access to telephone services, however, are encouraging. Literacy rate in 15-24 age group stands at 88.6 percent against the target of 90 percent, while life expectancy has reached 69 years against the target of 71 years. Target for access to mobile and telephone services has already been achieved as country's telephone penetration has already crossed 100 percent of total population.
Though NPC describes outcomes of the plan as 'mixed results', many NPC officials view achievement of growth, employment generation and energy targets is very important.
Chandra Mani Adhikari, former member of NPC, said it would be wrong to term this periodic plan successful by gauging achievements in some social indicators. "Major indicators at present are far behind the set targets," added Adhikari.
NPC has started consultations to prepare concept paper for the 14th three-year plan which begins from the start of the next fiscal year.
