Except for a few cases, nearly all political settlements in Nepal have ended up in some kind of a midway or compromised solutions through a process of give and take. It is easy for the disputants to breach or attempt to breach such vague, non-decisive, non-committal settlements.
Even the ferocious war between the Maoists and the then Royal Nepalese Army ended without a decisive outcome. Some say, it has to be concluded that way because the Maoists do not need to win the war; they simply have to remain undefeated. The army, on the other hand, had to win the war; they could not risk losing. However, they also claim that “winning” was never a goal to be achieved; it was to bring the rebels to a negotiating table and this is what they did. And we have transitional justice, originally expected to be resolved within six months, but has dragged on for more than 18 years.
Triangular fights
The major political fights in Nepal also involved three parties. One can observe this in the political revolution of the 1950 (Ranas, monarchy and Nepali Congress), or during referendum of 1980s (Panchas, Nepali Congress and the Communists), or during the mass movements in 1990 (monarchy, Nepali Congress and united left alliance) and in 2006/7 (monarchy, multi-party wallahs and the Maoists). The triangular fights are settled through a compromised solution. In a threesome dispute, with the collusion of the two, it is far easy to defeat the other lonely party.
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Blessing in disguise
Many have read the on-going political polarization between the rajabadis (royalists) and the republicans as a sign of political discord, turbulence and instability to come. People are worried about political uncertainty. However, every crisis situation implies not just problems and hurdles, it also provides an opportunity to start something new and fresh. Given our track record of seeking ‘taaltule’ compromised solutions and the parties repetitively breaching those compromises, the ongoing polarization process could be a blessing in disguise. There are a couple of reasons to count.
Decisive outcome
First, the polarization process has divided the country’s politics into two camps, namely, the rajabadis and the republicans. This is expected to produce a decisive, win-lose outcome. Remember, the rajabadis are already claiming for a win-lose battle; expressing in terms of either having a hastinapur ko raj (prince) or chaparimuni ko baas (pauper). Similarly, republican camps are claiming a need to bury the monarchy forever so that it cannot raise its head, again and again. They are even calling for actions against the former king for the eruption of violence on March 28 demonstrations. Compromised solutions have failed to work because the environment is fluid and the parties are constantly shifting their alliances. What we need is a decisive, win-lose outcome. And the polarization process is expected to bring such an outcome.
Second, the polarization process is helping the parties at both ends to unite. One can observe the gradual process of consolidation and unification taking place with the rajabadis as well as the republican camp. As for example, PM Oli could be seen visiting the damaged office of CPN-United Socialist and shaking hand with his nemesis Mr. M. K. Nepal.
Doing away with gray areas
Third, the polarization process is expected to wipe out gray areas. There will be discomfort for the people and the parties taking advantage by staying in the middle. Late British PM Mrs Margaret Thatcher used to say, “It is perfectly ok to drive either left or right. But someone driving in the middle of the road will have greater chances of getting hit from the traffic coming from both sides.” Remember, how many of the 32 activists, who issued statements, asserting people having the right to dissent on the eve of mass movement, have withdrawn their statement? The political parties like RSP, RPP and NMKP will have a difficult time in deciding. RPP is definitely a royalist party. However, they have taken oath under the present constitution. The mind and heart of RSP is torn apart between republican and rajabadi camps.It will be no wonder if they decided to follow their heart. Who knows the polarization process may easily split the party into two?
Fourth, the polarization process may produce a new, decisive political settlement and a new visionary leader. This time, the settlement has to be written in clear, precise and specific terms so that the parties do not breach the settlement. Without resolving political problems, it is near impossible to achieve other developmental goals. Hopefully, the ongoing political dispute will help to pave a new path or a trajectory for the country. After all, there is a silver-lining even in a dark cloud.