Political instability and black-marketing are close cousins. In Nepal, too, the Maoist insurgency followed by over a decade-long political transition has been a big boost to the informal economy. Especially after India started restricting fuel supplies following the promulgation of new constitution on September 20th, 2015 black-marketing in Nepal has reached new heights. Experiences from other unstable places in the world suggest that once the economy goes into the hands of black-marketers, it is devilishly difficult for the government to wrest back the initiative. This is because restrictions in supply of essential goods help with the creation of an informal business network; the longer the period of scarcity the bigger (and mightier) this network. It is in the interest of these people to try to prolong the state of scarcity. This phenomenon has been witnessed in countries under trade embargos: from North Korea to Iran to Cuba. Now we are witnessing it in (now embargo-free) Nepal.Even though all border points with India have been open for nearly a fortnight there continues to be an acute shortage of vehicular and cooking fuel in Nepali markets. One of the main reasons is that the black-marketers who had illegally bought petrol, diesel and LPG cylinders during the blockade would not like to sell their old stocks in the open market at a loss. The thousands of liters of fuel entering Nepal from India on a daily basis are thus being squirreled away by wily petrol pump and LGP depot operators, who often work in cahoots with the mighty fuel mafia. Apparently the new stock will be sold only when the old stock runs out. But why isn't the government doing more to control such open black-marketing and ease the daily lives of its people? It is reluctant to act because the black-marketers have friends in right places, who include, it is widely suspected, the highest-ranking members of the present government. Otherwise it is inconceivable that the government would allow petrol pump operators— who have in the past one week received as much fuel as they wanted—to return their customers empty-handed. Such brazen disregard of rule of law is not possible without the complicity of at least a section of the government.
The political establishment in Kathmandu has long made instability an excuse for its inaction and poor governance, and the KP Oli government is sadly no exception. But technically isn't the period of instability over with the promulgation of new constitution? Realistically we could continue to witness a low level of instability for years, even decades, to come, as happens in any post-conflict society. But that cannot be an excuse for government inaction, or worse, its complicity in illegal activities, especially those that directly add to people's hardships. In a democracy, the government derives its legitimacy from the people. If a government cannot even ensure smooth supply of daily necessities even during normal times, it is unrealistic to expect much more from it. The Oli government found it convenient to blame India for all the country's woes during the blockade. Who's the next scapegoat, we wonder: the Madhesh-based parties, the IOC or the shamelessly invisible opposition?
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