Madhesh crisis a Kathmandu conspiracy, not provincial instability: analyst Shah

By REPUBLICA
Published: November 11, 2025 09:00 AM

KATHMANDU, Nov 11: Political analyst Tula Narayan Shah has remarked that the recent political developments in Madhesh Province are not an internal instability of the province but a “well-planned conspiracy” orchestrated from Kathmandu to weaken federalism.

He said the late-night appointment of the chief minister by the province head from a hotel was an attack on democratic practice and the federal system itself.

Speaking to Republica on Monday, Shah said the dispute unfolding in Madhesh appeared to have been deliberately manufactured with the key objective of triggering political instability.

“The dispute we are seeing in Madhesh today appears to be artificially created,” he said, “Looking at the role of the province head—rushing to take steps even before the vote of confidence process was concluded in the Provincial Assembly and before any formal notification—it clearly shows this is not a natural political process.”

Shah questioned the conduct of Province Head Sumitra Subedi Bhandari. “Leaving for Kathmandu on medical grounds and then administering the oath at a hotel at midnight—what message does that send?” he asked. “It seems like a mockery of federalism, parliamentary democracy and established procedures. This shows the province head neither respected the dignity of the position nor the legal boundaries.”

According to Shah, the root of the problem lies in the central leadership of major political parties and their “conservative mindset” toward federalism.

“The major parties like Nepali Congress, UML and Maoist Centre never truly accepted the federal system,” he said, “They could never ‘own’ it. For them, federalism was just an obligation forced upon them by various movements.”

He said, “The mentality of top leaders is as if this country is their ancestral property. When marginalised communities or provinces gain rights, they feel as if their share is being taken away. Therefore, whenever they get the chance, they try to weaken the provinces and portray federalism as a failure.”

Shah stressed that the ongoing events should not be portrayed as a failure of Madhesh. “This is not something done by Madhesh; it has been done to Madhesh,” he said. He alleged that the province head, appointed by the UML-led federal government, acted in a secretive and conspiratorial manner to create political conflict in Madhesh, pit parties against one another and ultimately derail federalism.

According to him, this incident is part of a continued effort to undermine the gains of the Madhesh Movement. The current developments in Madhesh have raised serious questions over the federal government’s sincerity in implementing federalism, Shah added.