PARIS, April 14: Prime Minister Viktor Orban's defeat in Hungary is a blow to global nationalists and signals waning allure of the Trumpism movement in Europe, but the vote result should not be seen as a turning tide for right-wing populism.
For years populist leaders had drawn inspiration from the self-styled "illiberal" politician who on Sunday lost to political newcomer Peter Magyar in a bitterly fought legislative election.
A thorn in the side of the European Union establishment, Orban ruled Hungary for 16 years and cultivated ties with Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin and Marine Le Pen, the leader of France's far-right National Rally (RN) party.
JD Vance travelled to Budapest last week to campaign alongside Orban, but even support from the US vice president was not enough to secure victory for Washington's Hungarian ally.
"The political space for MAGA to play on the continent is shrinking -- and I suspect the RN in France and other far right parties will now start actively distancing themselves from the Trump administration," Mujtaba Rahman, Europe director at risk analysis firm Eurasia Group, told AFP.
Sebastien Maillard, of the Jacques Delors Institute in Paris, said the result raised new questions about whether closeness to Trump had become a political liability, after the US leader threatened to seize Greenland and impose tariffs against European allies who opposed the plan.
"Trump, from the start of his new term and with this tariff war, Greenland and other issues, has crossed every red line and is deeply unpopular across Europe," Maillard said.
- 'Can be defeated' -
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Many politicians and analysts said Orban's defeat shows that no populist system, however entrenched, is permanent.
"This shows that the victory of nationalist populist right-wing parties is neither eternal nor inevitable," said Nonna Mayer, a political scientist at France's Sciences Po university.
Stijn van Kessel, professor of comparative politics at Queen Mary University of London, added: "The result does show that authoritarian governments can be defeated in elections, even if they tilt the playing field."
Much of the French political establishment viewed Orban's loss as an encouraging sign ahead of next year's high-stakes presidential election, for which the far-right RN is polling strongly.
Le Pen -- who has sought to align herself closely with Orban -- berated "the European Commission's sense of satisfaction" after EU chief Ursula von der Leyen celebrated Hungary having "chosen Europe".
In Germany, Chancellor Friedrich Merz said Magyar's victory was a "heavy defeat" for "right-wing populism", while Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said the Hungarian prime minister's defeat showed the world is "no longer condemned to authoritarian and corrupt governments".
Analysts say Orban's exit -- long seen as a disruptive force within the European Union for blocking support to Ukraine and opposing rule-of-law sanctions -- gives Hungary an opportunity to demonstrate a renewed commitment to its EU and NATO obligations.
But political observers caution against interpreting the result as a universal formula for defeating the populist radical right.
"To understand why Orban is voted out we primarily need to consider domestic factors, not least the economy," van Kessel said.
"This election does not necessarily offer a blueprint for how to defeat the populist radical right elsewhere."
- 'Orban is fighter' -
Populist parties are no longer political outsiders in Europe and now govern or co-govern in countries including Italy and the Netherlands.
Far-right forces in France and Germany -- where inflation and anxiety over migration rank among voters' top concerns -- are also gaining ground.
"The far right has become a structural force in most European countries," said van Kessel. "One defeat for a populist radical right party or government does not denote a general turning point."
Analysts said it was too early to write Orban off.
Orban played a central role in establishing the Patriots for Europe group, now one of the largest blocs in the European Parliament.
"Viktor Orban is a fighter," said Cyrille Bret, an expert at the Paris-based Montaigne Institute. "He will remain in the picture."
While some analysts said Magyar's victory could mark an end to Russian influence in Hungary, others argued the EU country would still need Russian energy and would seek to maintain functional ties with the Kremlin.
"This outcome deprives Russia of what had been its most pragmatic ally within the European Union and one of the few European leaders consistently opposed to robust support for Ukraine," analyst Tatyana Stanovaya wrote in a report for R.Politik, her political consultancy.
"At the diplomatic level, Moscow appears to be signalling to Peter Magyar that pragmatic relations could be maintained, provided Hungary does not adopt overtly anti-Russian rhetoric or policies.
