The 11-state province model was inappropriate to begin with. It was decided by a few powerful men who failed to grasp the concerns of people outside their own community.Their decisionseemed a strategy to perpetuate the dominance of the hill high caste. A break-down of ethnicity in these provinces showed that except for one province, where Madhesis had the highest population, all 10 provinces had hill high caste as the largest group. It is hard to believe that it was all just a coincidence.
There were other problems with the 11-state model as well. It was prepared despite the Constitutional Assembly (CA) committee’s plan to have a 14 state model. This is unfortunate because the whole purpose of having a CA is to gauge what the public wants and make laws accordingly. By the nature of how the decisions are made in CA committees, the CA’s model is likely to be more satisfying to the public, than those created at the whims of a handful.
When the top leaders decided on the half-baked 11 state model, the Madhesis and Janjatis sensed the possibility of them being ignored yet again. In response to this, Madhesi leaders reverted to the slogan of ‘One Madhesh, One Pradesh’. However, while it is a tough stand, its prudence is questionable.
First, it is going to be hard to manage as there could be constant conflict between the Pahadi population and Madhesis who will constitute an almost equal number. Second, Tharus might continue to be discriminated against in a single Madhes province. Third, it is against the will of the high cast Pahadi population who has dominated the halls of power for the last couple of centuries. They fear a backlash in a province where they are a minority. Fourth, even if the entire Madhes were to be a single state, it would break away anyway just like states in India have done over the last five decades.
The problem with pushing the idea of the entire Madhes as one single province is that it may become hard to retract later, putting the Madhesi leadership in a difficult position. It is important to keep the door open for negotiations, and settle for three states in the Tarai region, like the 14-state model prepared by the state restructuring committee of the CA had envisioned.
The bigger impediment to drafting the constitution has been the NC and UML. The leadership of these parties cannot give up their old attitude towards minorities. What is worse is that most minorities no longer trust these two parties: they make promises, but fail to live up to them. So when they came up with the 11-state model whose boundaries were to be settled only after the constitution, the most suspicious Madhesis thought that it could possibly morph into 11 north-south zones like during the Panchayat era.
Itseemsthe NC and UML would do anything to sabotage federalism based largely on identity. However, they have no moral ground to lead the discussion on federalismbecause they themselves never came up with any kind of roadmap before contestingthe CA election. The Maoist party had a map, and hence, they performed the best in the CA election. It is their map that should be the basis of federalism.
As Prof. Baral pointed out in his recent article in the Kathmandu Post, “The old mindset that Nepal will disintegrate if an identity-based approach is recognized is not tenable at this stage.” Debating whether we should have identity-based federalism or notis futile. Instead, a compromise within the frame-work of identity based federalism is what one needs to aim for. After all, no constitution can please everyone. There has to be some give and take, and it should be a document that a sufficient number of Nepalese can claim ownership of.It is very clear that Madhesis and Janjatis want identity-based federalism and they represent more than 50 percent of the population. To try to draft a constitution without them on board defeats the purpose of this revolution.
The author is an Assistant Professor of Economics and Finance at Texas A&M International University in Texas, USA
680anand@gmail.com
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