Even though the Madheshi Morcha on Friday had ruled out holding further talks in Kathmandu, asking other parties to come to Madhesh instead, both formal and information negotiations have continued behind the scenes. Saturday morning's interaction between Nepali Congress President Sushil Koirala and Madheshi leaders Mahant Thakur and Upendra Yadav was said to be 'positive'. In the reckoning of Morcha leaders, Congress has been more flexible than CPN-UML and its chairman and prime minister KP Sharma Oli. This is why we have been calling on the prime minister to show more flexibility, especially on demarcation of federal provinces. But there is little doubt that Oli has also softened his rigid anti-Madheshi stand of late. Even through the government and the Morcha might both be loath to admit it in public, they have each been told by New Delhi to narrow down their differences, amend the constitution and create conditions for opening of the blocked border points at the earliest. This is because like the Big Three and the Madhesh-based parties India too wants a face saver, so as to justify its prolonged economic embargo.But the Madheshi Morcha has a tricky task. Appear too rigid in negotiations and even the little public support they have in Tarai-Madhesh may evaporate. But appear too flexible and Madheshis could accuse them of surrendering to the 'Pahadi' establishment, in which case, Morcha leaders fear, extremist forces in Madhesh could wrest the initiative. This is why its leaders have been asking Congress and UML interlocutors to understand their 'difficult situation'. The Oli government, meanwhile, seems pleased with the way New Delhi has told Madhesh-based parties to use the twin amendment bill, now tabled in the parliament, as a point of convergence between the two sides. In the government's reckoning, the Madheshi movement is losing steam and will in due course fizzle out. As we have repeatedly pointed out, this is flawed logic. On Sunday, a youngster was killed in Rautahat's Gaur from police firing, immediately inflaming the protests there. Violent incidents were witnessed on the same day in other parts of the Tarai as well. That, in fact, may be a Morcha tactic: to once again build pressure from the grassroots to get major parties to accede to two Madhesh-only provinces.
But that, too, is a risky strategy. For if violence increases in the Tarai belt, so will the appeal of extremist forces. As we have seen, the Morcha is not wholly in control of the protests there. The best solution is, therefore, still for the two sides to use the constitution amendment bill as a platform to resolve all outstanding issues. The language of the proposed amendments can be tweaked and a guarantee given to the Madheshi parties that proposed province boundaries will be revised by some particular future date. But for that the Madheshi parties should first be ready to defer the final decision on federal boundaries for time being. Time is of essence. The two sides need to hammer out an agreement to this effect soon. As the violent incidents on Sunday showed, the appearance of clam in the Tarai is illusory. Mainstream forces must reclaim middle-ground while they are still in a position to do so.
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