UCPN (Maoist), which emerged as the largest political party in the erstwhile CA, appears to be focusing toward strengthening its position in Madhes, where Madhesi parties and Nepali Congress (NC) hold sway, has startled Madhesi parties.[break]
However, Madhesi parties themselves have yet to come up with their views on strategy about the next CA elections. Even, leaders associated with the United Democratic Madhesi Front (UDMF), an alliance of Madhesi People’s Rights Forum-Democratic (MPRF-D), MPRF-Republican (MPRF-R), Tarai Madhes Democratic Party (TMDP), Sadbhawana Party and TMDP-Nepal (TMDP-N), are not clear about whether they will proceed with the existing alliance for election purpose.
A leader of Sadbhawana Party says that UDMF is no more relevant following the end of Baburam Bhattarai-led government in March. He further argues that the alliance was formed only for power sharing.
Chairman of Sadbhawana Party Rajendra Mahato has been publically criticizing TMDP Chairman Mahantha Thakur and MPRF-D Chairman Bijay Kumar Gachchhadar terming the duo disloyal to Madhesi peoples and Madhesi issues. “They [Thakur and Gachchhadar] betrayed Madhesi peoples by accepting the proposal on formation of five federal states in Madhes during the erstwhile CA,” Mahato said, “So, Madhesi people should take note of this.”
In the meantime, speculations about unification between Upendra Yadav’s MPRF and Thakur-led TMDP seem to have subsided. The two leaders reportedly disagreed over who should lead the unified party. Similarly, top leaders of both the parties could not arrive at consensus on power sharing in the central committee as well as district committees. TMDP leadership demanded equal stake in the central committee but MPRF leadership turned down the demand stating that it should be allocated in respectful way as the party has strong organizational base than TMDP.
Apart from that, TMDP Vice-chairman Hridayash Tripathi and Joint-General Secretary Jitendra Sonal stood against the proposed merger with MPRF. They expressed their readiness for unification with MPRF-D rather than MPRF.
Upendra Yadav has already formed Federal Democratic Forum (FDF). The alliance comprises MPRF, National Madhes Socialist Party (NMSP)-led by Sharat Singh Bhandari, who quitted MPRF-D and formed the party following disagreement with Gachchhadar, Tamsaling Nepal Rastriya Dal (TNRD), Rastriya Janamukti Party, Khambuwan Swayatta Rajya Parishad, Janamukti Party Nepal and Nepal Shanti Samaj Party. The alliance is also mulling over accommodating other fringe parties especially indigenous parties in it.
On the other hand, Jaya Prakash Prasad Gupta, who was recently released from jail after serving a sentence on corruption charge, has launched Tarai Madhes National Campaign (TMNC) across Madhes in a bid to form a new political party. Besides, former central leaders of MPRF-R who are close to Gupta, former MPRF-D central committee member Sarba Dev Jha, among other leaders have also joined the campaign.
Gupta has also been approaching some armed outfits being operated across Madhes to accommodate them in his campaign by making them lay down weapons. He has already urged the armed outfits to give up separatist agenda and join peaceful politics with him. Leaders involved in the campaign say that they will form a new party once CA elections are ensured.
MPRF-R led by Rajkishor Yadav and Mahendra Yadav-led TMDP-N are likely to be merged. TMDP-N General Secretary Govinda Chaudhari and central committee member Chandan Sah, who recently quit the party, are in talks with MPRF-D leadership to join the party. Sadbhawana Party has been extending its organizations to all districts. According to Mahato, the party has presence in 64 districts.
The initiatives for merger between MPRF and TMDP were taken by the latter. However, even some leaders from both the parties acknowledge that such initiatives were taken under pressure from the southern neighbor [India] as it wants a united Madhesi party that can play a vital role in power equation and can stop the UCPN (Maoist) from becoming a decisive force in Madhes.
TMDP General Secretary Sarbendra Nath Shukla, who is also the party spokesperson, also ruled out unification between the two parties for the time being. “Though unification is the best way, this may not be practical at present because disgruntled leaders may defect parties right ahead of the elections,” he added.
Political analysts believe that Madhes-based parties will come under alliance sooner or later, though they do not seem to make any effort in this regard at present. Political analyst Chandra Kishor Jha states that Madhesi parties are weighing their respective strength prior to forming election alliance as they will have share seats to go for polls after formation of such alliance. He sees two reasons that will compel Madhes-based parties to form election alliance.
“First, the grassroots wants Madhesi parties go for elections together because that will strengthen Madhesi forces,” said Jha, “Second, Madhesi parties fear that their agenda will be foiled if non-Madhesi parties—UCPN (Maoist) and NC—emerge as major force in Madhes.”
Madhesi leaders are also confident over formation of election alliance comprising Madhes-based political parties stating that it has been a compulsion to come under an alliance for their common cause. “The first priority of our party will be unification among Madhesi parties,” said Senior Vice-chairman of MPRF-D Rameshwar Raya Yadav, adding, “If unification does not become possible then an alliance will certainly be formed among the Madhesi parties.”
Former ambassador to Denmark Bijay Kant Karna, who is also a Madhesi activist, foresees there will be two alliances in Madhes, one led by Upendra Yadav and another under the leadership of Thakur and Gachchhadar. Shukla also stresses the need for forming new alliance as UDMF has not accommodated all Madhesi parties.
MPRF had secured 54 seats while TMDP and Sadbhawana Party had bagged 20 and 9 seats respectively in the erstwhile CA election. Asked about strength of Madhesi parties in the next CA, Karna said, “It will depend on which party will raise the issues of citizenship, delineation of electoral constituencies and seats under proportional electoral system.”
However, many believe that Madhesi people will ultimately elect Madhesi faces despite their frustration with the leaders. “Though Madhesi parties appear to have become weakened in Madhes and there are no wave as during the Madhes movement, Madhesi peoples are aware about their issues,” said Jha, adding, “Madhesi faces will be elected from Madhes.”
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