Things are looking good. If the earlier agreement between HLPC and Upendra Yadav-led Federal Democratic Front had strengthened people’s belief in November 19 election, Friday’s deal between HLPC and Ashok Rai-led Federal Socialist Party Nepal, one of the main agitating forces against the scheduled election, now leaves little doubt that election will take place on schedule.
Significant compromises have been made in the process of these twin agreements. Going back on their earlier agreement on a leaner 491-strong CA, the major parties have now agreed to revert to the jumbo 601 seat Constituent Assembly, the same strength which failed to give the country a constitution in four long years. [break]
We believe a smaller, but an equally inclusive CA with proportional representation of marginalized communities, would have been a better option and in keeping with people’s expectation of a more cost-effective constitution-making body. It wasn’t meant to be. But if that was the only sticking point standing in the way of timely CA election, it would also have been rather foolhardy for HLPC constituents to stick to their guns at the risk of indefinitely delaying election. And so the deal is done.
Yet, it would be premature to believe that timely election is a settled case. Even if there were to be an election, it is by no means certain it will be peaceful and credible. The doubt persists because the most militant force against the proposed election, Mohan Baidya’s CPN-Maoist, continues to resist meaningful compromise to enter the electoral fray. Nonetheless, the pressure is building on the radical Maoists to join the election process: not just the big parties but even all the medium-sized ones are now one on election.
The dash-Maoists find themselves in a Catch-22 situation. Having resisted compromise for so long, they cannot be seen ‘capitulating’ to HLPC without something in return. But as momentum for November 19 builds, they also risk being completely isolated from political mainstream and from the electorate. Thankfully, they have not left the talks table. Not yet.
At this moment, it is hard to figure what can be offered to CPN-Maoist as a credible face-saver. In truth, they have made things difficult for themselves by holding out for so long. Had they become a regular part of formal dialogue process between HLPC and other agitating forces, they could have made a legitimate claim on increased PR component (now the credit goes to Yadav and Rai) and the all-party meeting among all the forces in the erstwhile CA (as agreed upon on Friday). They missed their chance.
But we believe the party still has more to gain than lose by endorsing November 19 election, even though they might not get much in return. There is just about enough time to work out some kind of electoral alliance. It is not even necessary that all party leaders stand for election. Now that 26 CA seats are to be nominated by the post-election government, a mechanism might still be worked out to give top CPN-Maoist leaders a place in the new CA.
If there have been so many unpalatable compromises to ensure CA election, there is no reason there cannot be one more. But time is running out. Baidya and company first have to agree to see reason, before it is too late.
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