The report published on Tuesday also predicts domestic savings to go up to 9.98 percent of the GDP, which is better than last year´s 8.62 percent but lower than 11.52 percent recorded in 2009/10. [break]
Despite the hike expected this year, the figure shows Nepalis spend over 90 percent of gross domestic product which affects capital formation process.
The report also projects GDP growth rate of 4.63 percent for fiscal year 2011/12, putting the figure at Rs 1.55 trillion. The rise is expected to come from 4.86 percent hike in agricultural income propelled by higher yields of cereal crops and other agricultural produces.
The report projects paddy production to go up 13.72 percent in this fiscal year while production of fruits, meat and dairy products, and other livestock products are estimated to go up by 5.13 percent, 3.01 percent and 5.99 percent, respectively. Despite hike in production, the contribution of agriculture and forestry sector to the GDP is expected to fall to 34.78 percent this fiscal year, from last year´s 36.54 percent.
The manufacturing sector´s contribution to the GDP is also expected to remain at a low level of 6.17 percent - the same as last fiscal year´s. The sector is also projected to expand by mere 1.28 percent this fiscal year. The low growth rate is expected to be triggered by fall in production of clothing items and shoes made of fabric, leather and synthetic, plywood and dairy products, the report says.
Another damper is the construction sector which is expected to contract by 0.07 percent this fiscal year. Its contribution to the total GDP is also expected to fall to 6.73 percent this fiscal year from 6.93 percent of last fiscal year. “This is the result of fall in supply of construction material which has affected government and private sector projects,” the report says.
However, contribution of wholesale and retail trading to the GDP is expected to go up to 14.24 percent from 14.16 percent of previous year, with expansion of the sector by 3.79 percent.
The report also predicts gross national disposable income to stand at Rs 1.97 trillion this fiscal year, up from Rs 1.68 trillion of last year.