Within a week, after PM Prachanda claimed to have “a magic number”, it seems to have vanished, as often happens in magic shows, in the thin air. What went wrong with him? Wasn't he cocksure ruling the country for five years?

Late Dr. Harka Gurung used to say, “In Nepali politics what is real is invisible, what is visible is ritual”. Lots of political currents are underway in Nepali politics. What transpired on June 29, Saturday meeting between Oli-Deuba at the former’s residence, Balkot turned out to be an exercise in ritualism. It is too difficult to grasp political undercurrents. By Monday midnight, media reported on signing an agreement between the NC and UML, detailing the points of the agreement, including the appointment of former Chief Justice Kalyan Shrestha to head the constitutional reform commission to be formed.

The social media also reported Deuba and Oli meeting the President (which is not true), and informed the public that by Friday Oli will be swearing in as the new PM (this is yet to hold true). There is also social media speculating on possible sacking of Prachanda, as in Koshi Province, if he refused to go, after showing an exit door. Meanwhile, on Tuesday, media reported him and his party determined to face a vote of confidence in the House.

When deeper, invisible political undercurrents were taking place, the Prachanda-led government was busy, as in The Emperor's New Cloth, claiming his invincibility and superiority. His spokesperson was telling the public not to believe the “media trial”on coalition changes.

A person who claimed to bring uthal-puthal (havoc) in the country is, now, destined to have uthal-puthal in his own political career. With 12 percent voting power, definitely, he is sure to go, sooner or later, but no one expected him to have a nasty Humpty-Dumpty fall, that is, vulnerable, irreversible, and total damaging action. His disgraceful exit is unthinkable and beyond one’s imagination. Here are the mistakes, or rather blunders, he committed that led to his disgraceful exit.

First and foremost, he excessively relied on an overly ambitious young man, a new comer in Nepali politics, Mr. Ravi Lamichhane, RSP president to run the show. No one can understand his partnership with this character. RSP did more damage to the Maobadi Party than the other way round. This is his first and the biggest mistake. Unlike the boldness he exhibited earlier when Lamichhane was stripped off his position by the court,  this time he not only failed to demonstrate that boldness but went ahead to defend him and protect him in the parliament, over the issue of cooperative scams. Similarly, when Lamichhane took political vendetta against a media owner, he downplayed the issue by saying it to be a normal court proceeding.  At one point, Prachanda had to declare in public of “no change in IGP” over public rumor that Mr. Lamichhane is planning to sack IGP. Instead of defending Lamichhane, he could have kept quiet and let nature take its course.

His second big mistake was in infuriating Nepali Congress Party to the maximum. Remember during the chaos in the House, created by NC members capturing the well, during  the session on confidence voting, he needlessly infuriated NC by throwing tantrum, expressing the incident as a kalanka (blot) in the history of NC and warned NC paying high price for the mistake. The Nepali word Kalanka is a severely derogatory word and crosses the limits of a decent politician. Now, I suppose, he is paying the price for making that statement.

His third mistake is in his style of governing. There is too much verbosity rather than actions. He could be delivering speeches here, there and everywhere. He kept busy engaging in perfunctory activities like inaugural sessions and ceremonies, with garlands, here and there, now and then. Once he remarked these activities should be kept at minimum. If there is any remarkable thing he has done this is: Unlike past PMs, he moved his office from Baluwatar residence to Singhadurbar secretariat. Literally, he could not come out of the small circle of nepotism and family interests. The way he betrayed NC or rather, Mr. Krishna Sitaula, over the issue of appointment of the Chairman of the Upper House, gave an impression that he could indulge in anything for the sake of hanging on to power. Given his gradual isolation within his party, maybe, he has run out of options. His commanders like Mr. Dev Gurung, Mr. Janardan Sharma or even Mr. Krishna Mahara, who once and a while come to rescue him, are in a kind of hibernation. One rarely sees them coming to defend him. Who knows his party may be having a final split.

His fourth and the final blunder is in irritating CPN-UML and its boss Mr. K. P. Sharma Oli. Literally, this has closed his chapter. First, Oli got offended by his casual off-the-cuff misogynistic remarks against Mrs Sumana Shrestha over her move to depoliticize school teachers. Banning teachers’ unions, she is literally playing with the fire. Second, the issue of Giri-Bandhu Tea Estate land scam must have infuriated Oli after Home Minister, Ravi Lamichhane informed the house that CBI is expecting public complaints before it starts opening the file. Earlier, KMC Mayor Balen Shah tweeting Oli to get prepared for jail term also must have led him to believe: This is it.

 
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