Can mankind and its engineering marvels take on nature´s furies? No. Perhaps no other country is better prepared to withstand big earthquakes and tsunamis than Japan. Yet Japan could not. And it is battling the biggest crisis after World War II. As reports of radiation leakages spread far and wide, the Japanese are demonstrating yamato-damashi spirit to rebuild their country. Hats off to them all.
Juxtaposing the radiation levels of Fukushima Dai-ichi with the 1986 Chernobyl disaster, several western nuclear powers are busy debating their way ahead. Nepal´s immediate neighbor China has suspended plans to build nuclear power plants for the time being. And to the south, India has called for review of quake safety measures in its planned nuclear power stations.
IS NEPAL SAFE?
If a technological giant like Japan has been such vulnerable, nobody is safe. Right next to India or China, is Nepal safe? It is not. Here is why: India is preparing to install nuclear power stations in Uttar Pradesh, Vihar and West Bengal all sharing border with Nepal. Should an earthquake strike Nepal or a nearby Indian state, what will happen here is beyond anyone’s imagination.
Perhaps, nowhere else on earth are cities and buildings safer than they are in Japan. Yet, the towns in Miyagi or Sendai could not withstand the waves of tsunami kicked up by the nine magnitude quake underneath the Pacific. Considering all this, Nepalis must be taking pause and pondering: Are we really prepared to face similar disasters? Will our buildings and bridges withstand big earthquakes? Do we have plans for rescue and relief should a ‘Big One’ strike?
The Japanese tragedy should wake everyone up in Nepal, and across the Himalayan borders: Across China, Myanmar, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Nepal, India, Pakistan, Afghanistan and beyond. As we all know, disasters do not strike with prior notice and warning!
What have we done in Nepal? Except for occasional earthquake safety drills on Earthquake Safety Day (which falls on Jan 15, commemorating the 1934 earthquake) in one or two schools or hospitals, it appears that we have done nothing – absolutely nothing –to prepare ourselves for braving the disaster.
The risk is even greater for Nepal. After the 1998’s ‘tit-for-tat nuclear tests’ by India and Pakistan, American seismologist Roger Bilham, who was visiting Kathmandu, said, "Nepal need not fear nuclear bombs, it should better worry about the nuclear bombs (earthquakes) under the Himalayas.” His geological analysis was clear: Nepal has not seen a major quake after 1934 Vihar-Nepal quake.
The 1988 Udaypur earthquake did not even count as a Big One.
Professor Bilham denied that he wanted to be an alarmist. But he said, “A Big One is long overdue. It can strike in ten minutes, ten days or ten years. But it is definitely going to happen in our lifetime.” Analyzing that there has been a long gap since Kathmandu and Dehradoon in north India have seen no big earthquakes in the past century, he said, “You’d better worry about that Big One.”
More than a decade later, few seem bothered and fewer look prepared.
ALL-ROUND PREPAREDNESS
Today, seeing the Fukushima reactors stricken and unprepared nearly two weeks after the plant automatically shutdown, it is clear that people need to worry about nearby nuclear reactors as much. In an earthquake-prone region like ours, government had better raise the safety standards of nuclear power plants; and, if possible, should give up the idea of going nuclear and, instead, should go for renewable energy.
What have we done in Nepal? Except for occasional earthquake safety drills on Earthquake Safety Day (which falls on Jan 15, commemorating the 1934 earthquake) in one or two schools or hospitals, it appears that we have done nothing – absolutely nothing –to prepare ourselves for braving the disaster. Word is: From the government to the communities, everybody needs to be prepared about emergency handling and trauma situations.
We need to follow Building Codes. But that is easier said than done, or perhaps a joke at a time when much of urban Nepal is going on a haphazard and terrible land-plotting, real estate- and high-rise apartment building spree. That needs to stop. Before it is too late, scientific land-use policy is a must. Total compliance of Building Codes must be reinforced on building of all houses, apartments, malls or even bridges, tunnels and under or overpasses.
After studying recent earthquakes in Chile and Haiti, Professor Bilham concluded that most of the urban buildings there are "Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)." To him, Kathmandu may look even worse with WMDs aplenty. According to experts, the only building in Kathmandu that can withstand big quakes is the International Convention Center of New Baneshwar built with China’s assistance. This building is said to withstand 8.5 Magnitude quake. Rest of Nepal is at the mercy of Almighty!
After a big quake strikes, one expects wise response at all levels and relief and rescue: Things being so bad here already, they could get even worse post–disaster days. Roads and bridges could collapse, much of the town could be flattened, and big structures could come crashing down. Power supply and telecom infrastructure could face breakdowns. Worse, even the highways and the only international airport could suffer serious cracks.
WANTED
All that and much more could seriously hamper rescue and relief efforts. What is needed is an end to the lackadaisical and fatalistic attitudes. Let us start building quake-resistant houses, bridges, hospitals, cinema halls and malls. Let us start upgrading our water supply, power and telecom lines in such a way that they withstand the worst of tremors. And let us remain prepared for the aftermath-handling. Time to act is now.
Writer is a journalist with the BBC Nepali Service
nepal.surendra@gmail.com
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