Acharya, who asked Republica scribe to meet him in a hotel where he said he was staying to distribute ´fuel´ to his cadres, appeared least hopeful of UCPN (Maoist) victory in Jhapa, where the party had won in five of the total seven constituencies in the first CA election held in 2008. [break]
"It is not as in 2008," said Acharya, when asked about the party´s election campaign in Jhapa. "Not as many cadres as in 2008 have been mobilized."
Acharya, who is miffed with the party for not choosing candidates representing workers, peasants and the Dalits, bluntly said the UCPN (Maoist) will not win the CA election in constituency-1 of Jhapa, which comprises Mechinagar municipality and three other VDCs.
"Even in six other constituencies, it is very difficult for us to win the election this time," he said. "Even if we win in other constituencies, it will be by very slim margin."
Acharya´s candid confession speaks volumes about the position of UCPN (Maoist) in Jhapa. Although other UCPN (Maoist) leaders claim they are still as strong as in 2008, there is a growing feeling that the largest political party of the first CA is likely to suffer a defeat in Jhapa. Fractions and resentment within the party, as manifested by Acharya´s discontent and the locals´ disenchantment with the party are likely to hamper their poll prospects.
The locals say the UCPN (Maoist) did not fulfill any of the promises that they made during the last polls.
In 2008, the UCPN (Maoist) had not yet split. Besides, the people, frustrated with old parties that ruled the country since 1990, had a huge expectation from the Maoists. Some people, mostly those in cities, voted for the Maoists, fearing that they would otherwise push the country into another war.
Now, the Maoists are no longer intact. And there is a growing perception that the UCPN (Maoist), too, is just like any other party.
In Jhapa, fielding of candidates like Dharma Ghimire, Bhishma Dhimal, Nanda Prasain and Harka Khadka, revered by many as true revolutionaries in Nepal´s communist movement, for the 2008 election led to a sense that the Maoists had not deviated from their ideals.
"In 2008, we were able to deliver a message that our war was just a culmination of Jhapa revolt; and we were true communists," said Acharya. "Now, there is no such energy. We have lost much of what helped us win the election in 2008."
Potential winners
In constituency-1, where Acharya sees his party´s defeat inevitable, Rabin Koirala of the CPN-UML, former mayor of Mechinagar municipality, clearly looks ahead of NC´s Bishwa Prakash Sharma and the UCPN (Maoist)´s Bodhraj Dahal.
Although Sharma is popular among the educated youth, he is alleged to be an outsider and likely to be affected by candidacy of Dhan Prasad Gurung, a former Nepal Tarun Dal leader, from Federal Socialist Party Nepal (FSPN). On the other hand, Koirala is popular among the local people. Many say Dahal has no chance at all in Jhapa-1.
If there is any constituency in Jhapa, where the UCPN (Maoist) most likely to win the CA election, it is Jhapa-2. UCPN (Maoist) candidate Purna Singh Rajbanshi looks ahead of UML´s Sudhir Siwakoti and NC´s Pabitra Niroula Kharel in Jhapa-2.
However, he faces a challenge from Bhakti Sitaula, who defected from NC to contest the election from Rashtriya Prajatantra Party Nepal (RPPN). Many say RPPN cannot win anywhere in Jhapa if it loses even in Jhapa-2, which comprises seven VDCs including Anarmani and Charpane, where there is Birtamod bazaar. Sitaula, whom Republica caught up with in Birtamod, said, "My electoral prospect has been bolstered by NC´s deviation from its ideals. NC has shunned everything that its iconic leader B.P. Koirala fought for. So, even NC supporters will vote for me."
In Jhapa-3, it is not clear whether NC´s Krishna Sitaula or the UCPN (Maoist)´s Dharmashila Chapagain leads the race. Other candidates are unlikely to leave behind Sitaula and Chapagain. In Jhapa-4, the race is between NC´s Uddhab Thapa, CPN (UML)´s Prem Giri and UCPN (Maoist)´s Puroshottam Chudal. Others stand no chance.
In Jhapa-5, UCPN (Maoist)´s Jhalak Singh Darlami could emerge victorious, cashing in on Tom Rajbanshi´s defection from NC. After NC chose Keshav Kumar Budhathoki, Rajbanshi, a former Nepal Tarun Dal leader, registered his name as an independent candidate. Rajbanshi says he has support from local indigenous communities like those of Rajbanshi, Gangai, Tajpuria apart from the Dalits and Madhesi. “CPN-Maoist supporters can also vote for me to defeat UCPN (Maoist) candidate," says he.
In Jhapa-6, it is unclear whether CPN (UML)´s Dipak Karki, NC´s Ram Kumari Poudel or UCPN (Maoist)´s Pushpa Dhungel is running ahead. Candidates from fringe parties are unlikely to make any impact.
The electoral battle in Jhapa-7 looks interesting with top CPN (UML) candidate K.P. Oli, who faced a humiliating defeat at the hands of a little-known Maoist candidate in the previous poll in this very constituency, trying to overcome his 2008 defeat. CPN (UML) leader Romnath Oli says his party´s prospect is now brighter than five years ago.
“Back then, our party, even at the local level, was internally divided between two panels," says Oli. "Now, there is no fraction whatsoever within the party. We have overcome differences with two groups patching up with each other."
UCPN (Maoist)´s Gopal Kirati, who is pitted against Oli, might pay the price of contesting the poll from an unfamiliar constituency. Although Damak municipality, which falls under constituency-7, is home to a huge population of indigenous communities like Rai and Limbu, the locals are likely to support NC´s Suresh Subba, a local resident.
In addition, Kirati was fielded from Jhapa-7 as the UCPN (Maoist) failed to choose a unanimous candidate from among local leaders. Sources say fractions within the UCPN (Maoist) still exist in Jhapa-7.
Gagan Puri, Jhapa-7 coordinator of the UCPN (Maoist), however, says Kirati will definitely defeat Oli as people support his party´s agendas identity and federalism. "In 2008, we defeated Oli by pitting just a district level leader against him," says Puri. "Now, we have a bigger leader against Oli."
(With inputs from Raju Adhikari in Birtamod and Ramesh Chhetri in Damak)
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