That is exactly what the political parties in Nepal are currently up to, recklessly driving into a headlong collision trying to out-dare each other. The tightening deadline for constitution-drafting and the fraying peace process do not deter them, though they are likely to meet a dangerous crash in the near future. With their hearts pounding heavily, all eyes are now set on the post-May 28 politics of Nepal - aftermath of the constitution-drafting fiasco - and the next strategic move of the Maoist party.
MAOIST BRINKMANSHIP
The million-dollar question of the day is: Are the Maoists resorting to brinkmanship? There is every reason to believe so. Capturing state power through the fusion of the protracted people’s war and an armed urban rebellion has been the official party-line of the Maoists since the second national conclave held in the Indian city of Jalalabad in 2057 BS. Subsequently, Janabidroha (people’s revolt) has been the most cherished word among the Maoist rank and file, and their leaders frequently use it as a mantra to whip up cadres.
However the concept of Janabidroha has also been the source of much recent intra-party conflict, posing a threat of a vertical split in the largest political party. While hawks want to take advantage of the current chaos to launch an immediate revolt and seize state power, doves just want to formulate a socialism-orientated constitution and postpone such a revolt to a later date — after institutionalizing recent political achievements and changing “the semi-feudal and semi-colonial structure of Nepali society” into a highly-developed industrial country and when the international situation turns in favor of communism. The hawks are a far stronger force than the doves, but the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), which is the backbone of the Maoist party, has thrown its weight behind the doves. And that’s the reason why the doves have so far prevailed in the party.
Maoist Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal, who keeps switching sides for his political advantage, also knows too well that launching a revolt would be a self-defeating move as that would mean fighting the Nepal Army and possibly foreign troops. And again, even if the party seizes power, the communist regime cannot survive amidst the existing geopolitics and international power balance. Of course, the chairman frequently enjoys talking about a revolt with his cadres in closed door training sessions and sometimes also in public, but boosting the flagging confidence of the cadres with that idea is a different matter altogether.
The Maoists, who took up arms to establish a communist state for the “golden future of mankind” and who declared it a crime to lay down arms before the insurgency was taken to a victorious conclusion (the first strategy of the historic people’s war), cannot obviously accept liberal democracy in its harsh form, stick to the status quo and become another CPN-UML.
Not surprisingly, the Maoist politburo meeting that concluded last Friday decided to launch urban-centric demonstrations — not an immediate revolt. But the meeting seriously mulled over it and many even pointed out the need to go for it. And the party even considered a revolt as an option. The Maoists will assess the turnout of people in the decentralized urban-centric demonstrations scheduled for May 1, and chart out the future plan of action.
Party insiders say the purpose of the upcoming Maoist demonstrations is twofold: Force the ruling parties to form a Maoist-led national unity government and formulate a “socialism-oriented constitution” before endorsing the CA extension deadline. With pressure from the streets, Maoists are planning on a hard bargaining in the face of looming May 28 crisis. But much will depend on how Maoists will fare in the forthcoming demonstrations; they will deal with the ruling parties accordingly.
If the demonstrations fail to yield results, they may just give their approval for extension of the CA deadline, but will not agree with the ruling parties on the constitution-drafting and integration and rehabilitation of the combatants. Thereafter things will gradually slip out of hand of the doves within Maoist party. The ensuing confusion will eventually strengthen the hawks’ position, posing a risk of a protracted civil war in the country.
NON-MAOIST COALITION
It is surprising that the incumbent government - a coalition of 22 political parties - has not fallen apart even after 10 months of its formation. Maoists have been hitting the streets for so long and playing all sorts of tactics to topple it, however all their efforts have been unsuccessful. The strong cohesive that holds them together is: The common fear of Maoist takeover. On top of that, some sections in the Nepali Congress (NC) and CPN (UML) think that it would be better for them to force Maoists to go back to the jungle or incite them to commit something “suicidal” rather than let them be the dominant party. Hence the continuous deadlock, and the coalition will not break until the parties change their mindset, and the Maoist change their ways.
At this moment, compromise is the only option left to avoid any untoward incident: The new constitution should neither uphold sweeping changes, as demanded by the Maoists, nor the status quo and liberal democracy as demanded by the ruling parties (mainly the NC). However, a progressive constitution is the Maoist bottom-line. The Maoists, who took up arms to establish a communist state for the “golden future of mankind” and who declared it a crime to lay down arms before the insurgency was taken to a victorious conclusion (the first strategy of the historic people’s war), cannot obviously accept liberal democracy in its harsh form, stick to the status quo and become another CPN-UML.
The country can really see a new beginning only if the political parties agree on formation of a national government, led by an accepted figure from amongst them, and subsequently strike a deal on the constitution and integration and rehabilitation of the Maoist combatants. Maoists will easily come to a compromise in the management of the combatants as keeping them in cantonments for a protracted period may lead to a mass walkout and poses a grave risk to the party. However, the ruling parties are not willing to make compromises.
Their logic is: Why should they quit the government as that would not pave way for concluding the peace process and drafting the new constitution? Yes, the constitution cannot be drafted even if Maoists lead the government because the rigid instance taken by the parties is to maintain the 1990 constitution without monarchy, stick to the status quo, and snub the system change and broad socio-economic transformations agreed upon earlier. Awarding lucrative appointments to the highest bidders, indulging in massive corruption, placing their men in the charge of the Commission for Investigation of Abuse of Authority (CIAA) and investing some of their earnings to win elections and get back to power again are the ways of most politicians here. Otherwise there is no reason to fear the Maoists who have already decided to accept a competitive political system. A comprise can really save the country from sliding into anarchy and pave the way for a new beginning for the country.
But the question is who will be the ‘chicken’. No player has so far shown any signs of swerving away or compromising. And the game is dangerous because it is not only limited between the two players; the future of around 27 million Nepalis is at risk.
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