On Friday the Maoist establishment faction under Pushpa Kamal Dahal called for party plenum on June 29, while the rebel faction under Mohan Baidya simultaneously announced a national gathering of its supporters on June 15. There is now widespread acceptance, even within the Maoists, that a split in the party is not a question of if, but when. By the looks of things, it might not be far. Baidya has not been mincing his words: “We called the gathering because of the problems in the party. We are in the process of forming a new communist party,” said the radical faction head at a press meet the same day. Given the state of political flux, it is hard to foresee the impact of the Maoist split in broader Nepali polity. But there are a few likely scenarios.
First, the polarization in Nepali polity is likely to increase with the formation of a new ultra-left party under Baidya. The far-right, emboldened by the demise of CA, will surely look to court extreme left forces, and vice versa. This in turn could prompt the mother Maoist party and other old democratic forces to themselves veer to the extremes in order to shore up their vote banks. On the positive side, by increasing Dahal and Bhattarai’s ability to push through vital agenda, the mother party is likely to have a more coherent voice. Baidya’s exit will also mean that the Maoist establishment will be able to be more flexible in negotiations with other parties.
Another important consideration in case the Baidya faction decides to part ways is its likely impact on the peace process. The bulk of the process was done and dusted with sometime ago. But risks remain: Baidya and co will look to reach out to the disgruntled former combatants who believe they were forced into difficult choices when the party leadership agreed to send the army into PLA cantonments. This has made many disgruntled fighters see entry of PLA combatants into the national army more as ‘capitulation’ than respectable integration. This is the reason the Baidya faction was able to successfully convince many of them to opt for voluntary retirement than be willing accomplices in the establishment faction’s ‘capitulation to capitalistic forces’. Many of these disaffected youths might be swayed by the new party’s pitch of redress of the ‘great injustice’ on them and may get attracted to Baidya’s call for yet another ‘people’s war’.
Given Baidya faction’s belief in violence, his party might not emerge as a strong force in the next election (if it decides to contest it at all), yet with veteran Maoist leaders like Baidya, CP Gajurel and Ram Bahadur Thapa in their ranks, it will be foolish to underestimate its potential to disrupt the whole electoral process. And if they do take part, they will try to press ahead with their signature demands like single-ethnic identity based provinces, which again will find many adherents among Janajati and Madhesi constituencies. In order to blunt the impact of radical forces it will be all the more important for the major political blocks to forge ahead by creating an atmosphere of consensus. This will help broaden the middle ground and lessen the appeal of radical forces. Thus even with the CA no longer in place, there is no alternative to consensus politics to take the country forward and discourage radicalism in Nepali polity.
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