People´s palpable sense of relief at signing of the seven-point agreement by the four major political forces is giving way to creeping doubts. But it is still too early to write off the agreement.
For sure, the Mohan Baidya faction of the Unified Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) is doing everything it can to fight for its relevance in Nepali politics. Depending on who you are, you can view it as a struggle to preserve "communist ideology", an attempt at fare sharing of power or simply suicidal stupidity. But it cannot be denied that the faction has been able to maintain its nuisance value in constitution writing and peace process.
Creating hurdles in return of the property seized during insurgency, its attempt to disrupt the re-categorization of Maoist ex-combatants and its exploitation of the misgivings and disagreements between political parties over federal structure to increase its political capital have gone a touch too far. But Baidya faction is not the only obstacle.
There is the issue of the cut off education level for the ex-combatants who want to join the army. The Nepal Army has said it will recognize the education level of the Maoist soldiers when they joined the rebel army. They argue that taking into account the education after enrollment would be unfair on its serving officers. The Maoist combatants, on the other hand, even the education acquired after they were cantoned recognized.
Besides this, the number opting for integration into the proposed directorate under the Nepal Army is another bone of contention. It has exceeded the agreed tally of 6,500--the contribution of the Maoists to the new force--and is going to test the mettle of everyone involved.
Both these are potential flash-points, no doubt, and it would require another pragmatic approach from political parties and the leadership of the Nepal Army for their resolution. They should not be allowed to disrupt the broader objectives of peace and constitution. Failure to settle these issues amicably would be disastrous.
A further screening under Nepal Army´s standards and norms on recruitment, slightly relaxed as per the latest seven-point accord, is a sensitive matter. Hence the actions of the army top brass would be watched closely. It was the army´s idea to create a separate directorate under its watch, which was later accepted by the political parties. Some sensitivity on its part during the test of eligibility and rank harmonization would go a long way in removing suspicions of those who still view the army as an impediment to peace process.
No doubt, these roadblocks have the potential to halt the momentum of peace and constitution processes. It is still in the interest of all to keep up the momentum. We are so very close to reaching where we wanted to be all along. A new constitution that guarantees inclusiveness, pluralism, fundamental rights and lasting peace. A particular brand of cynicism keeps appearing occasionally: the constitution is not a panacea in itself and it won´t help resolve the problems we face. But surely these cynics would agree that once the constitution is promulgated, it will free up our political leaders to concentrate on the vital tasks that have long been neglected.
It would be worthwhile not to ignore two other issues. Those who always opposed the second Jana Andolan and the subsequent changes have begun to reassert themselves. Also, let´s not forget that just six years ago, we were counting the bodies on a daily basis; there are individuals and families still awaiting justice. I am not surprised the anti-CA and constitution-drafting voice is stronger in the capital which was relatively safe while the countryside faced the brunt of the conflict. This is the least we owe to our hapless fellow citizens who were the worst hit.
Barring a major upheaval, the knot surrounding the Maoist ex-combatants will finally be untangled. The effect of resolving this problem is bound to lead to positive vibes. The pressure from citizens, though, needs to be maintained. At the current juncture, giving the parties some more time is the best option. Even the Supreme Court has recognized that. In its order on November 25, it precluded any further extensions of Constituent Assembly, but it also acknowledged that some more time is needed to complete constitution-writing. Thus it allowed one last six-month extension.
The constitution-writing, of course, is expectedly proving to be a difficult task. The differences over the kind of federation we want and the criteria for carving the states are too big to allow for an easy solution. The formation of the State Restructuring Commission has been a big disappointment as some of eight members have no experience in the matter they have been tasked with. They will undoubtedly have a tough time coming up with recommendations on state-restructuring within the two-month timeframe.
For now, the political leadership has deliberately avoided taking up the contentious task of federalizing Nepal head-on. The two-month lifeline that they have now granted themselves would pass in a jiffy and then they will have to take a call. What could not be done in five years is expected to be accomplished in two months.
It is no longer a question of time but of political will and courage. There have been suggestions that the constitution should be promulgated without deciding on state-restructuring. In that case, the major political parties, particularly the Maoists and Madhesi parties, would face opposition from within. With general elections following the promulgation of the constitution, the parties that have staked so much on state-restructuring would be naturally apprehensive about their performance if it becomes a major election issue.
The next six months matter a lot. The political parties can magnify their differences and squander the achievements made so far. Or they can all agree to surmount the roadblocks for the larger good of the people.
The choice is theirs.
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