Holding free and fair election during a period of protracted political transition is never easy, as the country found out after the historic 2006 changes. The GP Koirala government struggled to hold Constituent Assembly polls for two years amidst worsening security situation in the Tarai. Odds heavily stacked against it, when the election was finally held in May 2008, it was greeted with a sense of relief. It is hard to compare the ground realities in 2008 with the situation in 2013.
The activities of the armed groups in Tarai and eastern hills are low-key compared to the ‘campaign of terror’ they had spread to sabotage the 2008 vote. But the government and the security agencies tasked with holding free, fair and violence-free polls in November cannot take the security situation for granted. Already, dormant armed outfits in the Tarai (and elsewhere) have started to regroup on the eve of the November election. [break]
Some of the groups have taken up arms with genuine political demands, but most have been formed with the one and only intent of fishing in troubled waters as they set up extortion rackets in the garb of political campaigning. Many of them might also serve as proxies for bigger parties looking to undercut opponents through intimidation tactics.
The arrest on Thursday of five cadres of the United Ethnic Liberation Front (UELF) from the capital along with raw material used for making explosive devices suggests many of these pseudo-political groups are slowly but steadily spreading their dragnet on the eve of November poll.
Police suspects that the group, the same one responsible for the blast at Babarmahal which claimed three lives last February, is plotting a series of bomb blasts in the capital to disrupt the upcoming election. The real purpose behind the planned blasts, or the atrocities at Babarmahal last year, is unclear.
But there can be some educated guesses. According to police, UELF was planning to launch a forced donation drive targeted at businessmen and industrialists, following the planned serial blasts in the capital. The goal, apparently, was to scare potential ‘donors’ into parting with cash. Or to teach recalcitrant ones a harsh lesson.
For instance, UELF was planning a blast at Samalik Carpet Industry at Aarubari in Kathmandu after the carpet makers turned down their request for Rs 500,000 in donation. Such disruptive activities could also be targeted at getting the government’s attention.
UELF members who have been arrested claim to have approached the home ministry with an offer of talks, but were turned down as the government refused to sit with an outfit which was carrying out criminal activities in the guise of a political outfit. In the days ahead, it will be a big challenge for the government and its political backers to sort out genuine political outfits from purely criminal ones, which will be vital for fair and peaceful vote.
As it is, they already have a herculean task of taking into confidence much bigger fish like CPN-Maoist, which is determined to disrupt the November vote. The party’s activities like demolition of ballot boxes and torching of Election Code of Conduct could be attention grabbing tactics too. But it is not inconceivable that the radical Maoist outfit could join hands with criminal elements to sabotage November election. Are our security agencies prepared for such an eventuality? Are there contingency plans? One thing is becoming clear: ready or not, the election security apparatus is sure to be tested to the limit come November 19.
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