KATHMANDU, Sept 13: The Ministry of Energy, Water Resources and Irrigation (MoEWRI) is preparing to form an expert committee to scientifically investigate the causes and origins of the devastating flood in the Bhotekoshi River in Rasuwa.
The study will examine the actual causes and sequence of events behind the disaster and the Himalayan geological risks associated with it, including the possible role of climate change, according to the ministry.
MoEWRI Spokesperson Mohan Kumar Shakya said an expert committee will be formed on Monday to conduct the scientific investigation.
Shakya said the ministry decided to conduct the study based on a proposal from the Water and Energy Commission Secretariat to examine the Rasuwa disaster not simply as a conventional flood or an event caused by excessive rainfall, but as a possible “cascading disaster” in which multiple geological, glacial, hydrological and other hazards in the high Himalayas may have interacted and developed sequentially.
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A preliminary assessment by the Water and Energy Commission Secretariat has not yet found sufficient scientific evidence to establish where the Rasuwa disaster originated, what physical process triggered it, or how the event developed and spread downstream through the Bhotekoshi-Lhende river system.
The commission has therefore concluded that the entire sequence of events must first be scientifically reconstructed before drawing conclusions about climate change as a cause of the disaster.
The study will be conducted in three phases.
The first phase will examine the chronology of the event and the geographical extent of damage from the high Himalayan region through the Bhotekoshi-Lhende river system and downstream areas. Researchers will examine the interrelationship between glaciers, instability of rock and soil slopes, landslides, debris flows, river discharge and flooding.
The second phase will identify the immediate and underlying physical causes of the disaster.
The third and most important phase will scientifically assess the extent to which human-induced climate change may have influenced the likelihood or intensity of these hazards and the prevailing level of disaster preparedness.
An international scientific study by the World Weather Attribution on the extreme rainfall, floods and landslides that occurred in Nepal from September 26 to 28, 2024, had assessed the events as having been influenced by human-induced climate change. However, the Energy Ministry has concluded that the Rasuwa-Bhotekoshi disaster may have been different in nature and should therefore be investigated based on scientific evidence rather than through direct comparison or predetermined conclusions.
The proposed study will involve experts in glaciology and cryospheric science, geology, geomorphology and landslide science, hydrology and river hydraulics, meteorology and climate science, remote sensing, disaster risk management, and climate change attribution.
Given the transboundary nature of the Bhotekoshi-Lhende river system, the study will also seek to incorporate available scientific and hydrological information from the Chinese side and develop mechanisms for scientific cooperation and data exchange where necessary.
According to the ministry, the proposed high-level scientific committee will conduct a field visit to the potential source area of the disaster. Detailed photographic and video records will be prepared during the field inspection, with drones and satellite observations used where necessary.
The ministry is preparing terms of reference giving the expert committee two months to complete the study.
