In politics perception is much more important than reality. It can be true that Miss Sujata Koirala, because of her poor health, could not join the PM-led delegation to India last month. If required she can produce medical certificates, documents, prescriptions and testify to medical doctors. These are hard facts. Notwithstanding these hard facts, if people continue to believe that the real reason was her displeasure for not being made the deputy prime minister (DPM); the public perception can very easily turn into reality. Amid the controversy, she was even openly complaining about being placed in the fourth hierarchy in the government. No matter how hard Nepali Congress might downplay her demand to be the DPM, it is almost impossible to change public perception once established. Politics is as much about perception as it is about reality.
With their new proposal of making Miss Koirala the next PM, Maoists are expected to maim or even kill several birds with one stone. Obviously, the first bird to be maimed will be the Nepali Congress Party.
Now, we have one more perception in the making. It is becoming clearer day by day why Girija Prasad Koirala is insisting upon inducting Miss Koirala as a member in the CA. In Nepali there is a saying aaye aanp, gaye jhataro, the closest English version of which would be “killing two birds with one stone”. The Nepali saying implies that if you are lucky enough to bring down a mango by throwing a stick at it, then you can have it as your trophy, if not; you just lose the stick which is worthless anyway.
Earlier, GP Koirala had used the ripe mango theory to predict the downfall of the then Maoist government. His thesis was that a ripe mango need not be plucked; it will fall down due to its own weight. By proposing Miss Koirala as the next PM to lead the national coalition government, Maoists are now coming up with their own version of the ripe mango strategy to pull down the current government.
Well, one can proffer lots of arguments in favor of having Miss Koirala as the next the PM. Her first and the foremost qualification: A member of the Koirala clan. Period. After GP Koirala, she is the lone figure left to hold the mantle of Nepal’s politics. With three Koirala brothers already having become prime ministers of Nepal, now it is Miss Koirala’s turn. She is in fact, the heir apparent to the throne.
Second, in the annals of Nepal’s political history, we have never been lucky to have a woman prime minister. Remember, Girija reminding us, umpteenth times, why he is called by a female name? Now, it is time to have a female prime minister for real.
Third, Miss Koirala not only represents half of the nation’s population, she also represents the other halves who were married off to foreign lands. She may have lost her election bids but she has not lost her hopes on Nepali people.
With their new proposal of making Miss Koirala the next PM, Maoists are expected to maim or even kill several birds with one stone. Obviously, the first bird to be maimed will be its “Enemy Number One”, i.e., the Nepali Congress Party itself. The party is no more divided into Girija Congress and Deuba Congress. The coming division will be between pro-Girija and anti-Girija camps. The very idea of Miss Koirala becoming the next PM is enough to further widen the divide. Since a large number of anti-Maoist Congressi leaders belong to anti-Girija camp, an enemy of the enemy is going to be a friend for Maoists. This also vouchsafe why Comrade Prachanda vented so much anger against Mr. Ram Chandra Paudel about his remarks on sending Maoists to the prison camps.
The second bird to be killed is the CPN-UML. NC may be maimed but Maoists’ new proposal will definitely kill the CPN-UML. The party is already sharply divided into two camps – one supporting Maoists and the other opposing them. Bringing Maoists closer to NC means further sharpening the divide within the UML. The party may employ a last minute damage control strategy by agreeing to make Miss Koirala the DPM but by then the medicine will have already expired.
The third bird or rather several birds to be killed in one go will be the three Tarai-Madhes–based political parties, namely MPRF (Democratic), TMDP and NSP. Someone recently commented, “How can these parties issue a statement opposing government’s decision to cut VP’s perks and facilities and at the same time express solidarity with the government?” They are nothing more than a bunch of opportunists who easily shift alliances. Since the ideology of MPRF led by Upendra Yadav is close to that of the Maoists, the Yadav faction may thrive and survive. Others will possibly meet the same fate of NSP led by Late Gajendra Narayan Singh.
As the proposal was floated at a time when Miss Koirala was on a China visit, His Excellency Rakesh Sood must have had a busy time giving explanations to his bosses in the South Hall. He is already concerned with her China visit. The size of the booty she is expected to bring from China will further determine the seriousness of the Maoist proposal. Remember, what she said earlier. She is dragged into controversy because she is too active in politics. Her next junket is to the USA. This must be worrying news for Madhav Nepal.
The dream of Rookmangud Katawal of becoming ambassador to France is definitely shattered. He will face further discomfort when he comes to know that Kul Bahadur Khadka is being proposed as member of the Technical Committee, formed to support the special committee on army integration. The prime minister is clearly bluffing that army integration process will be complete within six months. Even the defense minister, who is from the prime minister’s party, is not member of the committee.
The Maoist proposal can also have a boomerang effect. Who knows there cannot be a split within the Maoist party? With their war machine intact, they have nothing to lose. However, having a woman PM unexpectedly Nepali people will then get to taste real democracy. They will quickly realize that the achievements of Jana Andolan II were nothing more than old wine (prajatantra) in a new bottle (loktantra). This is what the Maoists are here to prove and they will prove it.
The ensuing political cacophony will eventually pave way for Jana Andolan III, and this is what Maoists are looking forward to.
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