KATHMANDU, May 12: Nepal is expected to receive below-average rainfall during this year’s monsoon, but the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA) has warned that disaster risks remain high due to rising temperatures and intense monsoon activity.
Unveiling the draft Monsoon Preparedness and Response National Action Plan 2083 BS on Monday, NDRRMA projected that more than 1.9 million people could be affected nationwide. The plan highlights increased risks of glacial lake outburst floods, while the Terai and southern plains face threats of floods, landslides, inundation, soil erosion, and flash floods. Rising daily temperatures and heat waves are expected to hit the southern Tarai particularly hard.
The draft estimates that 1,997,731 people across 457,145 households will be affected. Of this population, 52 percent are women and 48 percent are men. Vulnerable groups include 164,060 children under five, over 401,500 senior citizens, around 48,000 persons with disabilities, and a significant number of women of reproductive age.
Mitigating the risk of monsoon-induced disasters
Provincial analysis shows relatively high disaster risks in districts of Koshi, Madhesh, Lumbini, and Sudurpaschim provinces. Authorities have urged federal, provincial, and local governments to strengthen preparedness, improve rescue operations, and enhance response management based on risk assessments.
NDRRMA Undersecretary Ram Bahadur KC instructed agencies to reinforce early warning systems, identify safe shelters, stockpile relief materials, and prepare rescue mechanisms to minimize monsoon-related damage.
The Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) predicted below-normal rainfall and rising temperatures across much of the country. Southern Karnali, most of Lumbini, eastern Madhesh, and southern Koshi could see rainfall deficits of 55–65 percent. In contrast, parts of the far-western region, western Madhesh, and central Koshi may experience 45–55 percent above-normal rainfall.
Northern Karnali and Koshi provinces have a 35–45 percent chance of light rainfall, while most other areas face a similar probability of below-normal precipitation. DHM also forecast maximum temperatures rising 55–65 percent above normal in several provinces, including Far-Western, Karnali, Lumbini, Gandaki, Bagmati, Madhesh, and Koshi. Minimum temperatures are also expected to remain above normal nationwide.
