Successive elections in Nepal have seen various forms of violence. In fact, right from the first parliamentary election in 1959 to the 2008 Constituent Assembly (CA) election, violence has been used as a political tool in the election.
The objective of electoral violence seems to be to influence the electoral process with the goal of securing political power or subverting the electoral and democratic processes through intimidation and disempowerment of political opponents. [break]
Republica
Yet there is no doubt that robust security is a prerequisite for free, fair and meaningful election. The level of electoral violence in 2008 CA election was significant, although it was underreported for various reasons. The upcoming second CA election won’t be different in terms of security challenges, and in fact, it might be argued that the level of insecurity has increased from 2008 as a range of new threats has emerged. I discuss some of the important ones below.
There is a range of political parties threatening to disrupt the upcoming CA election; CPN-Maoist has been identified as the single biggest challenge among them. In terms of election security plan, managing political parties like CPN-Maoist would pose a grave challenge for security agencies, particularly because there is no clear mechanism to tackle them if they resort to violence. Hence clear guidelines should be given to security agencies through the electoral security plan on how to treat CPN-Maoist (and other similar outfits) during the election, if it does go ahead with its declared plan of disrupting the November 19 vote.
The ex-Maoist combatants who opted for voluntary retirement could pose a serious challenge as well. A total of 15,624 ex-Maoist combatants choose voluntary retirement. After voluntary retirement, many of them might contest the election, or if they don’t, they might try to disrupt the election by supporting CPN-Maoist. Those disqualified by UNMIN as Maoist fighters could emerge as a threat too.
Similarly, the armed groups in Tarai have already announced that they will disrupt the polls. Many of them have merged to disturb the election in a coordinated manner. Additionally, increasing assimilation of the Tarai armed group members into Madhesi parties create policy level challenges for security agencies. It remains to be seen how they deal with this knotty problem.
The open border between Nepal and India is another big challenge, relating to the illegal supply of small arms and light weapons and the activity of Tarai-based armed groups in border regions. Border control mechanisms must be made more effective in collaboration with the Armed Police Force. This is imperative during the election period, not only to curb the use of small arms in election but also to prevent Tarai based armed groups from using the porous border to instigate violence and subvert the electoral process.
Likewise, the use of violence and intimidation as part of electioneering has a long precedent in Nepal. As reported in the media, all parties are planning to mobilize youths in election booths, which is likely to invite violent clashes. Security agencies should develop specific plans to curb such violence as clash between youth wings can easily invite confrontation between mother political parties, resulting in a potentially dangerous escalation.
Election Commission (EC) had proposed barring people with criminal backgrounds from contesting upcoming election. However, the EC’s proposal was rejected. It indicates that our political parties lack accountability and that the criminal-political nexus is as strong as ever. This nexus will be yet another major hurdle in conducting free and fair election; make no mistake, breaking this entrenched nexus will not be easy for security agencies.
Federalism will again be the most sensitive issue in the upcoming election. One of the key reasons for the failure of the last CA was also the inability of the political parties to come to agreement on federalism.
The issue of identity and ethnicity is closely linked to the federalism debate. If the issue heats up, things could get ugly. The government should clearly mention how to deal with the ensuing ethnic or communal violence. A spread of ethnic or communal violence from one election constituency to another will be a grave threat not just to the electoral process, but also to national security. Election security plan should clearly outline necessary arrangements to manage ethnic or communal violence during election.
Balloting conflict can occur on Election Day when political rivalries are played out at the polling station. For local police commanders, a clear guideline needs to be developed in the security plan regarding what they can do and what they cannot do.
Providing security for election involves intensive cooperation between various security agencies—Nepal Police, Armed Police Force, National Investigation Department and Nepal Army—and harmonization of their operations and priorities, in order to ensure peaceful, free and fair election. The government, under Ministry of Home Affairs (MoHA), has prepared an ‘integrated electoral security plan’ towards this end. This plan should be made available for public scrutiny. Above all, it must possess three key elements.
First, the integrated electoral security plan should clearly outline the various electoral security challenges, most of which have been identified here. The plan should mention appropriate mechanisms to tackle each of these challenges.
Most challenges are manageable; however, some will require specific security strategy. Second, the electoral security plan should aim for robust coordination between various security agencies, give each of them clear roles and chart out their responsibilities.
Third, it must clearly detail resources planning, including manpower mobilization for the use of temporary police, transportation and logistics planning, sufficient availability of light and heavy vehicles and possibly helicopters and aircraft for remote areas.
The second CA election is going to be a tricky one in terms of security challenges, but as outlined above, there are things we can do to minimize violence during the whole electoral process.
This article is summarized version of the policy paper “Electoral Security and its Challenges” prepared for Nepal Institutes for Policy Studies (NIPS)
The author has a Masters degree in Asian Studies from Australian National University
rohit.karki@gmail.com
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