The drafting of the new constitution is the responsibility of the Constituent Assembly (CA), which was given a time frame of two years, with a provision for a six-month extension. The task of the government in transition is to provide all necessary support to the CA. But valuable time was wasted in unnecessary wrangles. Girija Prasad Koirala ate up the initial four months by inventing one reason after the other to defer the power transfer to the largest group in the CA, the Unified Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist). It was futile to expect anything of substance from the government, which was conspicuously rejected by the people. But there was no way to compensate for the deliberate time loss.
Then came the Maoists’ turn. Although the second major party, the Nepali Congress (NC), remained out of the government, the coalition led by the Maoists had a numerical advantage of meeting the two-thirds majority to pass the constitution through from the CA. But the Maoists never paid due attention to the most important task of the government and indulged in a number of peripheral controversies and gimmicks. In doing so, they did not even follow the norms of a coalition government. The Maoists overestimated their power and indulged in a controversy with the Chief of the Army Staff (COAS) which, unfortunately, proved fatal to the Maoist-led regime. That was equally fatal to the nation itself because no other combination, including the present one, will have the comfort of a required two-thirds majority to pass the constitution.
The most vital factor that will contribute to the longevity of the present government is establishing good and positive relations with the Maoists without whose cooperation not even a single clause of the constitution can be passed.
The coming together of two large communist groups, the Maoists and the CPN-UML, was the best possible combination of interests in forging a new constitution. But, from the very start of the coalition, the two groups started locking horns in very insignificant irritants, culminating in the withdrawal of UML from the coalition. The Maoist-led coalition consumed a very valuable time component of nine months and another two months have now gone by without even a full-fledged government taking shape. Time wise, the new UML-led government has less than a year at its hand to fulfill the major tasks. The additional six months will be available only if the whole system approves of the existence of an emergency situation. So, the real question is: Can the present coalition manage to have the constitution ready in less than twelve months? Therein lies the significance of the longevity of the coalition.
The present coalition consists of 22 parties in the CA-cum-parliament. It is not a simple matter to keep such a vast grouping content in terms of distribution of power and resources. The delay in the formation of government was mainly caused by the bad bargain with every group or party claiming unjustifiably larger share of ministries. The fourth-largest party in the CA, the Madhesi People’s Right Forum (MPRF) even split as a result of the bargain. A faction of the split party has already withdrawn support to the coalition.
This is not a good omen for the longevity of the government. It is futile to expect cohesiveness in such a diverse composition. The largest party, the Maoist, will offer different allurements or inducements for segments of the diverse family and it will not be unexpected for some of them or most of them to accept the allurement. Being part of a stronger partner has its own charms.
The longevity of the present government will depend on a number of factors. First and foremost, it is important that no segment of the coalition gets hurt. In a coalition, even the smallest component has to be treated at par with the largest group and every component has to be kept in good humor by listening to their advices and complying with their demands. It was the failure to maintain this equation that took the Maoist-led government to its ditch. The UML, which leads the present coalition, has a much smaller size in the CA. This may prove to be a boon in disguise because the consciousness of its size will keep it from overestimating itself and bullying the smaller parties. The strength of this weakness, however, will inhibit the UML from using bold measures.
The second-most important factor is to focus on the main jobs at hand: The job of establishing peace and writing the constitution. It will be a naïve repetition here but the fact is clearly visible that the Maoists would have remained as a popular party if it had followed the major functions sincerely from the very beginning and the country would have got a constitution by the end of the stipulated timeframe. The UML can learn from the failures of their predecessors in this respect and engage in the major task without indulging in worthless gimmicks (like the Maoists’ claim to transform Nepal into Switzerland). The CA is at it but there are various flaws in the process of writing the constitution, which have been being discussed in all the media time and again. There, however, is one ominous coincidence, namely, that the present prime minister (PM) was the head of the main constitution drafting committee in the CA and is, therefore, largely familiar with the problems and flaws. In this respect, it can be hoped that he will use his experience as a guide and provide all support needed in the process. If this cooperation is provided spontaneously, it will add to the longevity of the government.
The last and the most vital factor that will contribute to the longevity of the present government is establishing good and positive relations with the Maoists without whose cooperation not even a single clause of the constitution can be passed. It looked good in the beginning when the PM urged the Maoists to join the government but they declined because their wound after having misfired in the COAS case was fresh and smarting. But the subsequent statements of the PM have not been consistent with his primary approach of rapprochement with the Maoists. Rather, the exchanges of verbal abuses between the PM and the Maoist leader is widening the political divide between them.
Furthermore, the present government has started repealing all the decisions of the previous government, thus directly antagonizing the Maoists and making a larger trench between them and the Maoists. The Maoists may have the option of engaging in a fresh rebellion if the constitution of their choice is not made. But the UML leader does not have such a choice. He must do or die. For this purpose, the PM must exercise restraint in making vile comments on the Maoist leadership.
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