South Asia is currently facing a period of widespread uncertainty and instability. Over the last three years, the months of July and August have marked significant upheavals in the political landscape, with leaders from the region fleeing their countries after protesters came to seize their residences. On August 15, 2021, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani fled the country after the Taliban entered Kabul. In July 2022, Sri Lankan President Gotabaya Rajapaksa was forced to flee following weeks of mass protests over the country's economic crises. Most recently on August 5, 2024, the longest serving female head of government of Bangladesh, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, fled the country after three weeks of student-led mass anti-government protests over quota reservations.
Though the background to unfolding events was different in each case, these events share a common thread that includes leaders becoming increasingly disconnected from ground realities, and displaying growing arrogance and revenge. Despite being elected to serve their people, they were ultimately forced to abandon their posts in the face of widespread dissent, for their safety and security. This write-up aims at focusing on the most recent development in Bangladesh.
Bangladesh is a country of strategic location bordering India, Myanmar and the Bay of Bengal. It has a population of 171 million people, and acts as a bridge between South Asia and Southeast Asia. Bangladesh keeps balancing its relations between Delhi and Beijing. The country has lived with scars of political assassinations ever since its independence from Pakistan in 1971. Bangladesh has a complex history of relations between the ruling and opposition parties that look deeply strained, contributing to a polarized society. The Awami League (AL) led by Sheikh Hasina-daughter of the liberation hero and father of the nation and Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) under Khaleda Zia, wife of an army General, who had seized power through coup, have alternated in power, though the Awami League has held office for longer periods. Politics in Bangladesh has become dynastic. Regardless of which party is in government, both have consistently sought to weaken their opponents and compromise independent institutions of checks and balances. The result of which the democratic system has to struggle to solidify and gain credibility. Each party’s political longevity in power can be said to have relied on tacit backing from the army and the suppression of opposition parties.
After Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina resigned and left the country, an interim government headed by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus was sworn in on Aug. 8, as desired by student protesters. Known as the "banker to the poor," Yunus received the Nobel Peace Prize in 2006 for his innovative use of microcredit to assist impoverished individuals. He described Hasina’s resignation as the country's "second liberation day." The new leader appealed for calm and an end of violence. His government has prioritized ensuring security and restoring investor confidence to facilitate economic activity. The interim government faces steep challenges of erupting criminality, protests and targeted attacks. Reports indicate that there have been spurt in increased crimes, including looting and robberies, as well as sporadic protests. Though the government led by Yunus has committed to improve the security situation, the government will have to confront the windmills of hate, prejudice and bigotry. Yunus’s position, though backed by the army and popular support, The Economist writes is “legally precarious.”
The law and order machinery during the final weeks of Prime Minister Hasina in office that witnessed lawlessness seems to have lost direction under the new dispensation. Protesters forced the chief justice, several supreme and high court judges, central bank governor, and at least 16 university vice chancellors to resign. Reports indicate risks of renewed unrest, and targeted violence within the country and driving hundreds of refugees outside. This is sure to heighten humanitarian and security concerns along the Bangladesh-India border, along the Northeast Indian states. Increases in retributory violence are reportedly increasing across 52 of Bangladesh's 64 districts, since the fall of Prime Minister Hasina. Leaders and supporters of Hasina's Awami League party, even law enforcement, and government officials, accused of supporting her regime are reportedly targeted. More such politics by protests could undermine Yunus’s authority and his leadership for managing the “second liberation.” Government faces a flood of pent-up demands, students have their own demands- “battle of generations”- those who fought for independence and those who were born after 1990. The new generation represents the new middle class, rising middle class, people from rural areas who want to have their say and share in the governance.
Students with no experience in governance have assumed official responsibilities. It would be no easy task for them. Governing is a vastly different challenge from protesting. While the situation is gradually stabilizing, instability and uncertainty still loom. How long this interim government, which is tasked to manage “second liberation,” and shape Bangladesh’s political future, will go remains uncertain. It is crucial that student leaders maintain unity to prevent paralysis within the interim administration. The exclusion of the Awami League, the largest and ruling party until August from the interim government and its struggles under the new dispensation are likely to fuel political tensions, creating chances of political retribution and unrest in the country. These tensions, deeply rooted in the legacy of the 1971 conflict, continue to shape the nation’s political landscape. As Gary J. Bass writes in his book The Blood Telegram: Nixon, Kissinger and a Forgotten Genocide, “Bangladesh’s defining national trauma, leaving enduring scars on the country’s politics and economy.” This turbulence will cast a long shadow over the interim government, especially if elections are postponed.
Chief adviser of Bangladesh's interim government Yunus, in an address to the nation on Aug. 25 said that the country will hold a free and fair election after the implementation of essential reforms. He did not provide a timeline for elections. He outlined key issues including areas of reforms in administration to include the judiciary, police, banking, education, health, agriculture and the election commission and law enforcement to ensure a transparent and participatory electoral process. These reforms are aimed at combating corruption, promoting good governance and free speech, and ensuring accountability. According to Yunus, the Awami League, which led the previous government, "crippled the education sector, looted banks and the stock market, set world records in project expenditures, openly plundered resources, turned law enforcement agencies into puppets of their party, snatched away freedom of speech, and violated human rights."
Since comprehensive reforms of state institutions to insulate the judiciary, bureaucracy and electoral system from renewed political capture before elections demand considerable time, this adds a layer of uncertainty, leading to the postponement of the constitutionally mandated 90-day period following the dissolution of the previous government. The prevailing views indicate that holding elections in two years will bring a “balanced system,”if held too soon, they say, “will end up with the same old thing.”
Lessons from Southeast Asia
Economy grew under Hasina so is inequality
Under Hasina's leadership, Bangladesh’s economy grew significantly, largely fueled by the garment industry, which employs 4 million people mostly women and contributes 10% to the country’s GDP. Several transformative infrastructure projects were launched during her rule. Since 2009, the economy expanded at an average annual rate of 6.6%, significantly reducing poverty levels and providing electricity access to more than 95% of the population. However, Bangladesh economy is currently grappling with falling foreign exchange reserves, runaway inflation and rising unemployment.High inflation and declining foreign exchange reserves intensified hardships of Bangladeshis. Unemployment stood at 16%. According to the World Bank, some 306,000 job seekers were applying for just 4000 available positions. Massive corruption and cronyism fueled protests, further worsening the economic challenges including the country's crucial ready-made garment sector.
In FY 2023-24, Bangladesh exported goods worth $1.97 billion to India, with total bilateral trade amounting to $14.01 billion. India has a $9.2 billion trade surplus with Bangladesh.India is the second largest trading partner in Asia for Bangladesh. India has also extended grant assistance for key infrastructure projects in Bangladesh, including the construction of the Akhaura-Agartala rail link, and the building of the India-Bangladesh Friendship Pipeline.China-Bangladesh bilateral trade totaled $18.5 billion for the fiscal year 2022-2023. A Washington based think tank American Enterprise Institute estimates that China invested approximately $7.56 billion in Bangladesh between 2005 and 2024.
The president of the Dhaka-based Foreign Investors' Chamber of Commerce and Industry estimated that political unrest caused $10 billion in economic losses.International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast is that Bangladesh's foreign exchange reserves will dwindle even further from their current $24.8 billion to $19 billion in 2025. Declining foreign exchange reserves means a country's declining ability to import fuel, driving more frequent power cuts that have worsening disruptions to the operations of factories and businesses. Several reports indicate that the concentration of wealth was at the hands of a few. The wealthiest 10% of Bangladeshi control over 41% of the country’s total income while the 10% of the people at the bottom receive just 1%.
Role of Army
Bangladesh has a long history of military involvement in politics. There have been military coups and counter coups in its history. It became prominent during the period 2006-2008. There are also records of the army standing by the people of Bangladesh, and supporting a civilian interim government. Given the feuding relations between BNP and AL, elections were suspended for two years and were perhaps heavily influenced by the army. The army played a central role in political affairs and managed the 2008 election process to ensure stability. In 2008 elections, Hasina's Awami League emerged victorious, leading to a restoration of civilian rule and a significant reduction in the army's direct political involvement. Like in other emerging democracies, the military maintains a covert role, yet assertive not to let unrest continue to fuel instability and dissatisfaction. If economic troubles persist and social unrest escalates, army’s covert role may become prominent to help the interim government for failing to improve the situation.
Reports indicate that young officers in the Bangladesh Army persuaded chiefs to back protestors. Given the role of the army in ousting Prime Minister Hasina, delayed elections are likely to see the role of the army expanded in domestic politics. Economic challenges and unrest worsen, and renewed episodes of social unrest may aid their mission as it will fuel dissatisfaction and discontent among its citizens. The Awami League remains an outcast at the moment. A Dhaka court has named ousted Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina as a suspect in a case involving the death of a grocer during protests. A complaint has been filed against her on Aug. 14 with the International Crimes Tribunal (Bangladesh) accusing her of crimes against humanity and genocide between July 15 and Aug. 5. The Bangladesh government has demanded her extradition to face criminal charges. Given the variety of complexities, a smooth sailing is unlikely for the interim government. Politics of reprisals and confrontation may embroil Bangladesh, ultimately harming the fundamentals of the fragile democracy and economy. That may create an ideal situation for outside powers to influence the country's direction.
The Awami League, the party of liberation, is not going to go away as wished. It has a nation-wide following and ruled the country for over 20 years in different periods. On Aug. 13, following Hasina's call from exile for supporters to demonstrate their strength on the anniversary of the slaying of her father, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman during the country's 1975 military coup — hundreds of them gathered in Dhaka. However, protestors disrupted their demonstration. According to Hasina's son Sajeeb Wazed Joy, who lives in the United States, Hasina will return to Bangladesh once elections are announced. Her ongoing legal challenges could impact her eligibility to run. The party will confront enormous challenges ahead. The party lacks a successor which was never allowed to grow under Hasina. Its non-representation in the interim government and diminishing presence is likely to compound problems for the party. If elections are not held in time, and no stable alternative to interim government emerges, a gap will be further widened, thereby enhancing the role of the army in domestic politics.
Foreign Policy
India expects, as Teresita Schaffer and Howard B. Schaffer in their book India at the Global high table: The Quest for Regional Primacy and Strategic Autonomy, write, “long term gratitude from Bangladeshis for its military intervention in their struggle for liberation from Pakistan in 1971. What it got instead was a classic big neighbor /small neighbor relationship. Bangladesh recognizes that its ties with India are crucial for its political and economic well-being but it is uncomfortable with its inferior position in the bilateral power balance and tends to blame Indian overreach when things go wrong.”
Zbigniew Brzezinskiwrote in his book Strategic Vision: America and Crisis of Global Power that China’s working “to match India’s presence in Burma and Bangladesh reflect a larger strategic design as well as an understandable intention to protect its essential maritime access through the Indian Ocean to the Middle East from the whims of a powerful neighbor.”
Hasina’s ouster is taken as a loss for India. She maintained cordial ties with New Delhi. Her presence in India after her resignation on August 5, has shaped perceptions in Bangladesh of India’s support for her. Western media narratives speculate that foreign policy will drift in China’s favor, though drastic changes are unlikely. Indiahas said it will remain engaged whichever government is in place and expressed concerns at a surge of anti-Hindu violence and called for protecting Indian citizens and Hindu minorities. There is a perception that India’s relations with new Bangladesh will not match the close relations that Hasina maintained. Hasina was sensitive to Indian security concerns. Her government has an effective crackdown on radical groups that operated along the 4000 kms long Indo-Bangladesh border whose absence will lead to sustained weakening of close Indo-Bangladesh relations. Border tensions may increase.
The Bangladesh Nationalist Party is a significant player in the interim government. Given BNP’s past, and the overwhelming presence of loyalists of Jamaat-e-Islami in the government, there will be concerns over alleged Indian influence in domestic affairs, and in utilization of water and rivers. Earlier, the BNP had called for an “India Out” movement, encouraging people to protest. Social media showed images of Indian products being crossed out in symbolic rejection. The BNP has always wanted to diversify Bangladesh trade partners and expressed its desire to reduce fiscal and strategic dependence on India. Amir Khasim Md. Chowdhury, head of BNP Foreign Cell says, “India’s policy towards Bangladesh has ‘completely failed.” Regardless of which party comes to power after elections, Bangladesh will have to skillfully balance relations with India, China and the West to maximize concessions from abroad while keeping them away from any possible external interference.
Water sharing over the Teesta water project has been a key point of tension between India and Bangladesh. Since the project was stalled, China offered to join the Teesta water project, and strengthened its ties with Bangladesh, particularly in infrastructure and development. Driven by its security concerns over Chinese engineers operating near its borders, India made a counteroffer. In July, Sheikh Hasina noted, "China has made an offer and conducted a feasibility study. India has also made an offer and will conduct its own study." She emphasized, "I would prefer India to handle this project as India has been responsible for holding up the Teesta's waters." Bangladesh will have to continue to navigate a delicate balance between India and China.
China has said that it is closely monitoring developments in Bangladesh and hoped for a swift restoration of social stability. China valued political stability under Hasina and welcomed her openness to Chinese trade and investment. However, compared to the Awami League government, the BNP is considered closer to China and has engaged in diplomatic meetings with Chinese officials. BNP takes China’s presence in Bangladesh as a counter balance to India’s growing influence. Bangladesh joined China’s Belt and Road Initiative in 2015, prompting significant Chinese investment in Bangladesh infrastructure projects. This includes the Karnaphuli Tunnel, an underwater expressway currently under construction in the port city of Chittagong.
It is too early to say that the Bangladesh government is likely to shift from strong ties with India to a closer relationship with China. If it does it will exacerbate strategic and security challenges for India. Earlier this year, former PM Hasina made visits to India and China within a short interval. Bangladesh considered India as a political ally and China as an economic partner. Of the two neighbors, India is considered close which was reflected in the statement of her foreign minister Mohammed Hasan Mahmud, who said that India had “no objection” to her China trip in July while the party secretary-general, Obaidul Quader, described India as a “political friend” and China as merely a “development partner.” These statements caused an uproar in Bangladesh political circles particularly in the BNP camp. The army may act as an antidote to extreme anti-India measures and promote a more balanced diplomatic approach. No one wants to alienate Bangladesh- a country of considerable significance, so there will be engagements from the international community.
Yunus has called for a fast-tracked third country resettlement of over 1 million Rohingya Muslims who fled their country because of escalating violence in Myanmar’s Rakhine state and are sheltered in Bangladesh. Refugees have little hope of returning to their homeland where they are denied citizenship and other basic rights. So far, there has been no response from the international community. Yunus held his first key diplomatic meeting with a six-member US delegation including US Assistant Secretary of State for South Asian Affairs Donald Lu with a call to “reset, reform and restart” Bangladesh-US relations. He also emphasized the need to reform the judiciary and other key institutions. The US side reportedly pledged to further aid Bangladesh.
Lessons from Bangladesh
Hasina won January 7 elections, which gave her 222 seats out of 299 contested. China, India and Russia quickly congratulated her, while the USA and EU said elections were not free and fair and called on the government to investigate irregularities. Democracy was considered flawed, as she had consolidated coercive control of the ‘institutions of state.’ In course of time, leadership developed a tyranny of the majority, and increasingly got disconnected from reality, ignoring the compounding difficulties of the masses. Growth is not enough when inequality increases and job crisis deepens. Bangladeshis who were born after 1990, hardly have any memory of any political party in power other than the Awami League led by Hasina. Students’ movement seemed to have sprouted out of grassroots protests unaffiliated with any political party. Prof. Ali Riaz has called the toppling of Hasina a “historic moment.” Now that students have got the leader they wanted along with two seats in the government, the main challenge will be governance. Protesting is vastly different from governing. There are enormous challenges. The true test begins now, not to let creative protests degenerate into abyss. Bangladesh’s destiny lies in the hands of all its citizens, irrespective of their political affiliations. Abrupt changes bring great uncertainties. Taking everyone on board remains a Herculean task for the Yunus leadership to manage what he has termed the fleeing of Hasina on August 5, as “second liberation.”
Some individuals, including political leaders draw parallels between the situations in Bangladesh and Nepal. There are significant differences in the social, political and economic landscapes of the two countries. Nepal is a country known for its tolerance, harmony and unity amidst huge diversity. Leaders of all political parties meet each other despite their deep differences and have engaged in dialogue and diplomacy to resolve even the most intractable issues. Yet despite years of democratic governance, and countless promises from leaders, deliverance has been dismal, and performance has been pathetic. Democracy is meant to deliver results, but this has not been the case in Nepal. Democratic leaders have often prioritized ascriptive qualities over merit, leaving the people frustrated. People are weary of hearing the same empty promises that remain unfulfilled over the years.
As Martin Luther King Jr. once said, “there comes a time when people get tired of being plunged across the abyss of humiliation, when they experience the bleakness of nagging despair.” One key lesson Nepal should draw from Bangladesh is that leaders should never ever underestimate the power and determination of the people.
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