The analysts who are writing about an inevitable revolution in China stand on a wrong premise: China’s authoritarian system is different from those of the Middle East. In Tunisia and Egypt, the leaders were accountable to no one and were dictators in every sense of the word, who ruled until the people kicked them out. Whereas in China, no leader can rule for more than 10 years and the party makes sure that each successive set of rulers (President and Prime Minister) not only are capable of leading the reform process initiated by the late leader, Deng Xiaoping in 1978, but also represent the changing face of China: Instead of dogmatic leaders, the party, through its internal mechanism chooses pragmatic leaders who are acceptable to the majority of population.
And instead of being driven by their own personal interests like the Arab dictators, the Chinese rulers are driven by the party’s interests, among which is to maintain its grip on power for as long as possible. Therefore, for this reason, the party has to act according to the wishes of the people. Unlike in the former Soviet Union where the ruling communist party tried to change the people to its policies, the Chinese Communist party is molding itself to the wishes of the people and it is safe to say that China is the only communist country in the world where the leaders themselves do not believe in communism. Gone are the old days when a billion people were made to think alike, dress alike and speak alike. Now the market and the mood of people dictate the policy choices of the party/government.
Second, the more the Western analysts encourage revolution in China, the more nationalist Chinese intelligentsia tends to get. Let’s not forget what happened in the immediate aftermath of the Tiananmen Square protests: The West’s criticism of China led to publications of books with nationalist fervor that called the Chinese to not give in to Western demands for change. At one point, the government being pragmatic, had to ban China still can say no, the sequel to a popular book, The China that can say no. Similarly, the participation of the current American Ambassador to China, John Huntsman in “Jasmine Revolution” organized in Beijing recently can be attributed for the movement’s failure to gain momentum as his participation was translated as receiving American backing.
An important aspect that the Western analysts tend to overlook about China is that revolutions there, be it 1911 revolution to oust the monarchy or the 1949 revolution or the 1978 economic reforms, all were driven by the feeling of nationalism. So far, there has been no revolution for a Western-style democracy in China. Even the 1989 Tiananmen Square movement was for reforms within the communist party, not for a total change of regime. A popular protest that can lead to a change in regime in China would have to do either with the West/outsiders’ bullying of China and the current regime’s inability to stand up to it or for economic reasons. But given China’s increase in defense budget and its growing clout in global economy and politics, China being humiliated by foreigners through unequal treaties or invasion like in the past, are indeed the thing of the past.
The Communist Party of China is smart enough not to let the developments in the Middle East affect its rule, and the majority of the population is smarter still which would not want the regime to change now, lest it affect the economic growth and stability that China enjoys now.
Economically, the Chinese state is doing well, but not all segments of the population have benefited from its impressive economic growth. This remains one of the major problems for the Chinese leadership. If one is to look at the pattern of regime changes in China, economic reason was what led to the dynastic changes in imperial China. The Chinese communist party knows that its survival depends upon making all benefit form the economic growth, and coming up with political reforms at pace with its economic growth. And the Chinese with their recently unvieled12th 5-year plan are addressing the economic issues. Political reforms, if the past is anything to go by, will be introduced gradually without making it appear big for two reasons: To control the excitement of its population and also not to appear giving in to the West’s demand for change. Political reforms are seen as experiments, if the experiment succeeds, emulate it, if it fails, discard it and think of something new.
Given all these factors, I believe it is quite baseless to say that China will be influenced by the events unfolding in the Middle East and North Africa. The ruling CCP is smart enough not to let these events affect its rule, and the majority of the population is smarter still which would not want the regime to change now, lest it affect the economic growth and stability that China enjoys now.
Writer holds a BA degree in Chinese Studies from a US college and MA in International Relations from a Chinese university
trailokyaa@yahoo.com
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