There are ample reasons to be skeptic and there are strong grounds to be optimistic that the second CA innings will produce a constitution.[break]
Those skeptics argue that the chances of the country getting a new statute are slim because the key actors, the tendency and the major thorny issues that led to the dissolution of the former CA still remain the same and the parties have made no progress in narrowing down their differences.
Completion of the integration of former Maoist combatants into Nepal Army and significant progress in remaining tasks of other peace process including the formation of the Truth and Reconciliation Commission can be a major reason to be hopeful.
During the four-year tenure of the previous CA, the issue of army integration overshadowed the constitution drafting process as the major political parties continuously disputed over which of the twin tasks -- constitution writing or peace process -- should be given priority. While UCPN (Maoist) wanted to give continuity to both the tasks simultaneously, Nepali Congress and CPN-UML insisted on concluding the army integration process prior to finalizing the draft of the new statute. At times, the constitutional committees and dispute resolution subcommittee remained inactive for weeks or months over the same dispute.
Now, the integration process of former Maoist combatants has been concluded and the major parties have narrowed down their differences on formation of Truth and Reconciliation Commission as well. So, now onward, the political parties can concentrate their energy only on constitution writing.
On the constitution writing front, a lot has been done. The then CA Chairman Subas Nembang and other key leaders closely involved in the constitution drafting and dispute resolution processes from major political forces have repeatedly said in public that over 90 percent of the task of constitution making has already been completed.
Interpretations of real status of the works done by the dissolved CA vary. While some argue that only a couple of issues ranging from state restructuring and system of governance are yet to be settled and rest of the works have been done, people from other schools of thought rubbish the claim. They say the claim that 90 percent of the constitution writing process has been completed is baseless and any such claim will remain baseless as long as the major issues related to federalism and system of governance are not resolved. However, it is undeniable fact that the thematic reports prepared by 11 CA committees are commendable groundwork for constitution writing.
After collecting public feedback from across the country, the thematic committees dealt each and every issue in detail. The thematic reports shouldn´t be taken lightly because the 601 CA members -- divided in 11 thematic committees – delved into their respective subject matters, held rounds of open discussions in the presence of media before finalizing the draft reports. The reports can provide strong bases for the new CA to resume its work.
Four-year experience
Political parties that were represented in the CA, its leaders, CA members, the officials at the parliament secretariat and experts working in the field within and outside the CA have undergone rigorous discussions as well as work process during the four-year term. Many believe that the lessons learnt in the past will be of great help for the new CA.
Nilamber Acharya, chairman of the dissolved CA’s Constitutional Committee, believed that it is not only the leaders and political parties but also people from every walk of life have learnt a lot and it is going to make a big difference. “And it will definitely have a positive impact,” he said.
Acharya and many others believe that the new legislature will complete the unfinished task of the previous CA.
There is a counter argument as well. Many believe that the newly-elected Assembly should be a sovereign body and its members free from the burden of the previous House.
Election result and new CA composition
Congress and UML leaders in almost every public speech in the recent days argue that the previous CA failed to produce new constitution “because of the faulty composition of the Assembly and due to emergence of the UCPN (Maoist) as the largest party”. They claim that the new CA polls can be an opportune time to correct the verdict.
CPN-UML Secretary Shankar Pokharel said that the answer to whether the new CA will be able to produce a new constitution will largely depend upon the result of the coming election. He said the political parties and other social groups are already divided into two alliances. “One group lobbies for a single-ethnic identity-based federal system while the other group advocates for multi-ethnic identity-based federal model,” he said. “Maoists lead the first group while UML and NC are in another camp.” He claimed that new CA can succeed if the moderate and democratic forces like NC and UML emerge as the leading parties.
Split in UCPN (Maoist)
UCPN (Maoist) Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal headed two crucial bodies – the high level taskforce and later the dispute resolution subcommittee in the CA– which brought down the list of disputes from over 200 to around a dozen. But the Baidya-led faction consistently opposed Dahal’s flexibility. At times Baidya faction pressed Dahal not to head the committees and Dev Gurung formally registered his dissents over various provisions that Dahal had approved. The Baidya-led faction has now formed separate CPN-Maoist party. Former CC Chairman Acharya believes that the split of Baidya faction will help further the constitution writing process because major political establishments including UCPN (Maoist), Nepali Congress and UML, among other actors, can draft new constitution by following a common political course in broader perspective. He, however, was quick to add that it is going to be a challenging task to move ahead whether Baidya’s party is brought on board or bypassed.
Federalism looms large
The old CA accomplished most of the task of the constitution drafting. But it proved to be meaningless and went back to square one at the midnight of May 27, 2012 when leaders led the CA to its dissolution. The differences on what should be the major bases to delineate provinces proved to be the last straw to break the camel’s back. The CA saw its demise due to the same dispute.
Many argue that the new CA will not be able to produce new constitution because the political parties and the social groups are sharply divided over the matter and have made no progress in bridging the differences. Parties are yet to agree on the system of governance – executive presidential system, Westminster parliamentary system or any other model – and leaders believe that the issue of determining the federal model is going to be a major stumbling block in writing new constitution in the coming days as well.
Referendum-like election on thorny issues
UML’s Pokharel believed that the coming elections will help settle the issue of federalism as well because the parties will make their positions more clear on the issue and they will forge alliances accordingly. Parties’ coming manifestos will be much clear vis-à-vis the major contentious issues because their position on federal system is going to be a major determining factor in the coming polls. “The polls will be like a referendum mainly on federal models and system of governance. Position on federal system is going to be more crucial,” said Pokharel.
Leaders believed that parties’ clear positions on major issues and their alliances may help the new legislature to draft new constitution. Forming alliances is not going to be easy task since the presence of regional and ethnic parties is certain to be significant in the coming CA as well given the mixed electoral model.
Ekraj Bhandari of CPN-Maoist rubbished optimistic claims. He asserted that leaders from the four political forces aren’t going to hold elections at all. “If they hold election, which is next to impossible, they will not be able to produce new constitutions because they have made no progress at all in settling the major disputes mainly related to federal model,” said Bhandari.
Despite different schools of thought, holding CA election has become an indispensable task. The country is headed for it and political parties can’t afford to backtrack. The result of the election will determine the course ahead.
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