A recent joint study conducted by the Small Arms Survey (SAS), Nepal Armed Violence Assessment (NAVA) and Interdisciplinary Analysts (IDA) paints an alarming picture of small arms situation in the country. Another related finding is that there has been a definite shift away from politically-motivated violence, which reached its height during the insurgency, to economically-motivated crimes. These days, most crimes take place not with a desire to harm other people in revenge attacks or to get rich quickly, but just to make the ends meet and to secure access to basic healthcare and education services. According to the study carried out across 30 districts, up to 83,500 households possess firearms. This potent mix of poverty and loose firearms could have all kinds of social ramifications. This is the reason the government wants to take back all loose firearms. Its most recent attempt resulted in a haul of 5,500 from various places in the country, a pittance compared to the estimated 440,000 privately owned firearms in existence in Nepal. Most of them were imported through the porous Indo-Nepal border.
These firearms are responsible for a rise in criminal activities across the country, including Kathmandu Valley, which has an estimated 10,000 privately-owned firearms. These weapons are mostly used in high-end crimes like extortion, kidnapping and murder. So far there seems to be only a tenuous link between poverty-induced crimes and easy availability of firearms: The high-end criminals seldom face hand to mouth problems. The most interesting aspect of the study is the hinted link between armed groups and politicians. Perhaps it will be some of the same armed criminals who will be used to influence the upcoming CA vote. Such suspicions are heightened by the possibility that the Election Commission’s proposal to bar candidates with criminal backgrounds from contesting election might be scrapped under mounting political pressure.
It will be extremely difficult to completely halt the free movement of weapons across the porous southern border, although Nepal Police seems to have had a measure of success in stemming the tide. But that might be the wrong way to go about it. If there is a measure of political stability in Nepal, it will clear the way for an economic revival, which will hopefully curtail most of the economically-motivated crimes. Yet the thousands of firearms cannot be left unaccounted for. We have already seen the devastating consequences of loose firearms laws in the US, which has witnessed one grisly firearms-related murder spree after another, including the most recent heartbreaking massacre of 20 children in a Connecticut school. But make no mistake: a generation of youth trained on the belief that it is okay to use violence to achieve certain ends will take some persuading to curb their natural instinct.
This is the reason it is of vital importance that the prolonged political transition comes to an end and a favorable business environment is created to absorb the growing youth population, sooner rather than later. One thing is for sure: the longer the current state of transition is prolonged, the more the likelihood of emergence of new criminals. Our stakeholders often tend to overlook this most obvious but vital point about the state of transition in Nepal.
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