In its new report, the National Planning Commission (NPC) has admitted that it will not achieve Net Enrollment Rate (NER) target -- the main indicator of universal primary education -- by 2015. [break]
According to the NPC´s progress report -- published on the eve of the global summit slated for September 20-22 in New York to review achievements made by 189 countries in meeting eight different MDGs by 2015 -- Nepal is likely to meet only two targets of primary student survival and literacy rates. However, the NER target achievement is uncertain. By 2010, when Nepal´s NER was to be 96 per cent, it is hovering around 93.7 per cent. Miserably, the growth rate of NER is just 2 per cent, less than the required 3.5 per cent. "We will not achieve NER target at this growth rate," said Dr Tirtha Khaniya, member of the NPC.
Nepal requires to increase its NER at primary level to 100 per cent by 2015, 36 per cent up from 1990, to achieve the MDG in education. Despite lagging in NER, Nepal hopes high in increasing the percentage of students who reach grade five to 100 per cent, 62 per cent up from 1990. Similarly, it also appears hopeful in increasing the literacy rate of 15-24 years olds to 100 per cent, 50.4 per cent up from 1990.
Unreliable statistics
As per the NPC´s recent report, of the total students enrolled in grade one, 77.9 percent reach grade five. However, taking into consideration the new flash report published by the Department of Education (DoE), the NPC´s statistics seems flawed and unreliable.
According to the DoE´s flash report published in 2010, 26.5 per cent students repeat grade one. "If so many students fail in grade one itself, how can the NPC say that 77.9 per cent students reach grade five?" asked education expert Dr Bishnu Karki, adding, "When percentages of students failing in other grades are considered, the proportion of pupils surviving up to grade five could really turn out to be far lesser."
And, the NPC cannot even argue that it included class-repeating students as well in preparing the report. Since the DoE adopted Reconstructive Cohort Model (RCM) in 2008, which does not take into account class-repeaters, the NPC´s logic that the counting of repeaters resulted in the high rate of student survival in primary level does not hold.
Similarly, according to the DoE report, five million students are at primary level in government schools. It is believed that 1.25 million primary-level students are out of government schools. Simply put, the total number of primary-level students stands at 6.25 million.
Interestingly, the total number of primary school-aged children, from five to nine year old, is only 5.3 million, according to the DoE flash report.
Going by the NPC´s yet-to-be-verified data, 6.3 per cent primary school-aged children are out of schools. "Even if we overlook 6.3 per cent off-school primary-level students, 393,750 students to be precise, the total primary-level students hovers around 5.8 million," Dr Karki said, questioning, "How can the total number of primary-level students be higher than the total number of school-aged children? It is a self-evidently flawed data."
According to Dr Karki, the over-reporting of student numbers by government schools, rampant especially after the promulgation of Per Child Fund (PCF) policy, may have led to the high NER. As per the PCF policy, government schools get teacher posts and funds in proportion of students. The DoE and NPC have also acknowledged this problem.
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