This meeting (between GPK and Dahal), however, points to something else, equally important: Parties may be struggling to find a common ground but parting of the ways, despite occasional hard rhetoric, is even more difficult. It’s the current power balance in Nepali politics that will force the parties, willy-nilly, to abandon their hard rhetoric and reconcile for the larger good of the society and their own interest.
It´s the current power balance in Nepali politics that will force the parties, willy-nilly, to abandon their hard rhetoric and reconcile for the larger good of the society and their own interest.
The leaders of the Big Three will have to eventually come to a compromise because of their growing limitations. Dahal, Koirala and Jhala Nath Khanal may have different wishes regarding the fate of this government and about the way out of the current political stalemate, but as things are evolving, each of them will have to compromise and accept Madhav Kumar Nepal’s leadership, at least in the short run.
The way in which NC (the party as opposed to individual leaders), Madhesi parties in the government and India have stood firm behind this government, there is little chance that there will be change of guard in Singha Durbar in the near future. Talk to Madhesi leaders who have visited New Delhi in recent times and they will tell you how much stake India feels in this government and in the present power arrangement. The Indian message to them is unambiguous and forceful: Don’t do anything that will weaken the presidency, the army and the current government.
Dahal is a shrewd politician and understands – no less than other leaders – in which direction the wind is blowing. He also understands the dictates of real politick (forgive him for being carried away sometimes) and knows when and how to be flexible—essential attributes of a skillful leader.
That is precisely why he went to see the president and met the prime minister (PM), notwithstanding his party’s decision to boycott them and to greet their public functions with black flags. He has also re-established contacts with New Delhi; has sent reconciliatory messages; and has been trying hard to make up with India. For Dahal, the problem is of sequencing: He wants to get back to power first, and then he is ready to fulfill past promises – remaining true to his commitments to multiparty democracy; amicably addressing the issue of PLA combatants; writing the constitution within the agreed timeframe and maintaining good relations with India. The other forces want it the other way round—Maoists must first fulfill their promises and only then can they claim government leadership.
GPK’s waning influence in the NC and Khanal’s lack of grip in the UML has also limited Dahal’s options. Dahal has proved himself to be masterful in playing one political force against another to his advantage. But the situation is such that GPK and Khanal, however much they wish, cannot carry their own party to go against PM Nepal.
NC is a strange party. Its presidents have loomed large over the party during their heyday but in the twilight of their career each of them have felt humiliated. Its first president Matrika Prasad Koirala was ousted from the party; Subarna Shumsher Rana felt completely sidelined while he was still active in politics; even BP Koirala, having felt humiliated, stopped going to the party office during his final years and died at his house in Jayabageshwari, Kathmandu. We all know the story of Krishna Prasad Bhattarai and Ganesh Man Singh (though Singh wasn’t the party president, he was revered as a Supreme Leader).
There are indications that GPK’s political career might as well end somewhat ignominiously. He seems consumed in his personal interests (until recently he hoped that premiership will eventually come to him) while the party faces existential challenges. Many senior party leaders say that NC must now chart out its own course irrespective of what GPK thinks, says and does. The recent Central Committee Meeting decisions are reflections of just that mindset in NC.
Aware of the improbability of his own ambitions, GPK lately focused all his energy in appointing his daughter to the rank of deputy prime minister in the cabinet. He himself has raised this issue with PM Nepal thrice in recent times, and last week he sent his daughter to the PM with the same message. “Sanobuwa (that is how Sujata addresses GPK) is firmly behind this government and rumors of government change are only propaganda of the Maoists. However, Sanobuwa has only one wish, which you are very aware of. The sooner you fulfill his wish, the better for this government,” a source close to the premier quoted Sujata as telling PM Nepal. The persistence of the Koirala duo paid off as Prime Minister Nepal promoted Sujata to the post of DPM this evening.
Khanal and his comrade-in-arms, Bam Dev Gautam, have wanted to see Nepal’s government collapse long ago but the fact that they cannot even raise this issue in their own party says as much about their limitations. Only if the UML vertically splits at this point can it put this government’s survival at serious risk. But, for now, neither it seems feasible nor desirable for the Khanal-Gautam faction.
Given all this, Dahal has limited options ahead. He must make a choice on whether he wants to play hard rhetoric till his party’s upcoming general convention – slated for early next year – get himself elected, get rid of his adversaries and only then make a genuine overture for reconciliation or reconcile with other parties earlier, which he will do if he is confident that he can carry the party with him. Either way reconciliation appears to be the only option for him.
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