Nepal's constitution process is back to the troubled waters, yet again. The four parties—Nepali Congress, CPN-UML, UCPN(Maoist) and Madheshi People's Right Forum (Democratic)—have set August 16, 2015 as the fresh deadline to promulgate constitution but new threats and fears have also emerged. More so after recently concluded nationwide public feedback program on draft constitution and people's views on federalism. There is a complete mismatch between Madheshi leaders' demand for autonomous east-west Madhesh provinces and people's expectations. But they are in no mood to listen.Call for naming and delineation is more vocal in central Tarai but even there people are not in favor of separating plains from hills. In the Far-west, they are dead against letting go of Kanchanpur and Kailai. Mid-west has similar sentiment. People in the eastern region do not want more than five provinces stretching from north to south. In the central region, there is a strong voice in favor of turning current five development regions into five provinces. But Madheshi leaders rebuff this call as a ploy to defer federalism. Apparently, they have also indoctrinated their cadres with hate mongering.
Innocent Madheshis, as Republica correspondent Ashok Dahal who returned from a weeklong field reporting of feedback campaign from central Tarai told this writer, have been brainwashed in such way that they think of Madhesh as if it were a different country. Radical federalists are becoming more vocal. Threat of secession has begun to make rounds.
"Give us Madhesh or give us a separate country," is their rallying cry. Nothing can stop 22 Tarai districts from seceding if the state neglects Madheshis, warned Sharat Singh Bhandari back in 2012. Loss of Madheshi parties in the CA II polls is tantamount to defeat of India in Nepal, rejoined Rajendra Mahato in December 2013. Then came CK Raut, demanding Madhesh as a separate country. Amresh Kumar Singh has joined the bandwagon. Other Madheshi leaders are silently applauding.
"Don't write off C K Raut," Madheshi leader Laxman Lal Karna warned this author in a recent interview. "He has become an idol among Madheshi elites and college goers. The PhD guy has captured the imagination of educated Madheshis." He may be right. Nepali society regards PhD holders as learned men, whatever their vested interests, and take their words as truth. Mainstream Madheshi leaders are apparently troubled to see Raut's rise but happy to see him spreading secessionist sentiment, despite overwhelming majority of people, from Mechi to Mahakali, wanting provinces delineated north to south, for good reasons.
Nepal's topography, in a way, has a human make-up. You have Himalayas like heads (admit it or not they still serve as Nepal's symbols of pride), mid-hills like a body and Tarai like feet (in the sense Tarai sustains food economy of the whole country). Those who abhor this analogy might reverse the order for their understanding. Take feet or trunk away and you are no more. Second, Tarai has more than double the combined population of hills and mountains (more than 50 percent according to census report, 2011). Unless it is made part of all provinces there will be a deep population imbalance between Tarai and hill states. It is vital to equalize Tarai population in all provinces not only to avoid secession risks but also to ensure food security in hills and mountains.
So as long as people from hills and mountains have to depend on Tarai for food grains and so long as Tarai has to look up to hills for water and herbs, separating one from other will be like removing a link from a unity chain. Third, people from hills migrate to plains for jobs and survival since hills lack development infrastructure and industries. Separating plains will be like asking folks of Karnali not to come to Nepalgunj but to make do with whatever little is available there. Fourth, China and India are making economic growth by leaps and bounds. Provinces can capitalize on growth and development to the North and South. Late Dr Harka Gurung was farsighted enough to take into consideration interdependence of mountains, hills and Tarai while dividing five development regions. But tell this to 'progressives' and they will call it an infantile nationalism and you a follower of Mahendrism (called so for nationalism espoused by King Mahendra).
It looks like attempts are being made to break this interdependence, sow seed of hate and promote revenge politics against hill people. "What will Kathmandu eat if Madhesh imposes blockade and stops food supply to the hills?, threatened Rajendra Mahato last month. They are likely to spread anti-hill sentiment to the extent of 2007, when hundreds of Nepalis of hill origin—who were living together with Madheshis in harmony—were forced to leave their dwellings.
"What is behind all the secession threat and hate politics?" I asked UML leader Bhim Rawal. "There is a great design," he confided, "to split Madhesh either in the name of federalism or through lax citizenship law." Alarmed, I asked a former Foreign Minister if that is the case. He answered in the affirmative. Amresh Singh's warning, therefore, cannot be taken as a mere pressure tactic or a bargaining tool. Something sinister seems to be happening. Note the following developments of the last two months.
The best thing about the 16-point deal and draft constitution, despite their flaws, was that they paved path for constitution. Then some Madheshi leaders knocked doors of Indian embassy in Kathmandu. Top leaders started receiving invitations for Delhi visit. And now those who spoke against Supreme Court's stay order on 16-point deal have started citing the same and speak in favor of province delineation before constitution, which is a mission impossible given multiple interests of multiple national and foreign actors involved. Congress lawmaker Amresh Singh issues secession threat. Government arrests CK Raut but cannot even interrogate Singh.
Mistakes have been made. Framers of Interim Constitution generously included "autonomous provinces" for Madheshis and Janajatis in 2007. But eight years since, no one cared to educate people on federalism. There has been a lot of misinterpretation of federalism. Madheshi leaders are making it sound like federalism is secession, not unity.
So, all desirable options to resolving federalism dispute have failed. What is wrong in Federal Commission demarcating boundaries of provincial states and provincial assemblies deciding province names? What's wrong in agreeing to north-south delineation as demanded by people? What's wrong in taking federalism to referendum?
"Progressives" label demand for north-south province regressive and its advocate anti-Madheshi. That's a big misleading allegation. Most hill settlers, except for vested interest groups, are in favor of granting inclusion, reservation, proportional representation, equality and development to fellow Madheshis. What they are affront to is the idea of separating plains from the hill because they know they are dependent on Tarai.
Early indications are federalism will be put on hold, because Madheshi actors are opposed to judicious demarcation of provinces and they have given the impression they want more than a province. This could prove to be a blessing in disguise if civil society and media restart healthy debate on federalism and educate people on what it really is and how it can best serve their interests. Federalism education will be easier to carry out now because draft constitution has outlined list of powers and details about interstate relations, which could be used as textbooks for discussions.
Nepal is at the crossroads. It is up to NC and UML—who together command near two third majority in Constituent Assembly and have powers to foil mishandling of state restructuring— whether to surrender to secessionist threat for short-term gains or put national interests first. Political actors committed a number of mistakes on federalism in the past. One more of it and we can only imagine the consequences.
Twitter: @mahabirpaudyal
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