The assembly elections in five Indian states whose results were announced on Tuesday might not be the stuff watershed elections are typically made of, but they certainly dole out crucial lessons for all key political stakeholders, apart from signalling the contemporary trend in Indian politics.
Elections to the five states—Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur and Goa—were held across February and March and were touted as being hugely significant, coming in the backdrop of a beleaguered Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government at the centre and just ahead of the 14th Presidential election in the country this summer. Of course, of these, the battle for the throne in the politically volatile yet critical Uttar Pradesh which sends 80 –the highest for any state—members to the Lok Sabha was the fiercest, with the election being hyped as a mini referendum, ahead of the 2014 general elections.
Let us make a quick recap of the results. While the Mulayam Singh Yadav-led Samajwadi Party (SP) pulled off a coup of sorts in Uttar Pradesh by winning 224 of the 403 seats singlehandedly, its highest tally ever, and ousting the Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) from power, the two major national forces—Congress and Bharatiya Janata Party were once again relegated to the periphery winning just 28 and 47 seats respectively. In Punjab, the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) and BJP combined has retained power with 68 of 117 seats with the former alone winning 56. While in Manipur, the Congress has kept its hold (42/60), it had to bite the dust in Goa where BJP won 21 out of 40. Uttarakhand has been a neck and neck race with Congress winning 32 of 70 seats, one more than the BJP.
The result clearly has a fundamental message to convey: Regional political outfits are here to stay. BSP’s comprehensive win in UP in 2007 has been followed by the SP storming to power in the state in this poll, and in Punjab, the Shiromani Akali Dal has further stamped its presence and hold. Be it the Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress in West Bengal, the Biju Janata Dal in Orissa, the Nitish Kumar-led Janata Dal (United) in Bihar or Karunanidhi and Jayalalithaa’s powerful outfits in Tamil Nadu, smaller and regional parties are becoming increasingly influential and relevant in both state and national politics.
In states where regional parties exist, it is proving to be near impossible for the big two to make inroads and claim power on their own. The strength of regional parties has been their ability to hold on to their respective states, continue being forces there, and yet playing a critical role at the centre. They also seem to have an uncanny ability to bounce back to power even when written off by the bigger national parties and the intelligentsia alike. Case in point being the SP in UP and Jayalalithaa’s All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) in Tamil Nadu.
As the larger picture of these elections becomes clearer, it is quite evident that another big election story could be fairly obvious wave against the Congress. The party failed to capitalize on the momentum it had gained in Uttar Pradesh in the 2009 Lok Sabha election, despite a well-meaning and rigorous campaign led by Nehru-Gandhi scion, Rahul Gandhi. Though it has increased its seats in the assembly from 22 in 2007 to 28 now, it fell disappointingly short of the promise it held in 2009 when it famously won 21 Lok Sabha seats which roughly translates to 100 odd assembly seats.
Tuesday’s election results have reinforced the fact that lines between central and state elections are slowly blurring and the disarray in the party and the government at the centre has deeply percolated down to the states.
The party further frittered away the opportunity to effectively capitalize on the anti-incumbency mood in both Uttarakhand and Punjab and, in fact, allowed the SAD-BJP combine in the latter to create history by being the first incumbent to have been re-elected in the state since it was reorganised in 1966. It also failed to retain power in Goa where its reign has been marked by corruption charges, and the only silver lining was the comprehensive victory in Manipur, attributable largely to a powerful local leader in chief minister Ibobi Singh and the absence of a cohesive opposition.
So what are the lessons for the Congress from these elections? One, there is absolutely no substitute for a strong local leadership and state organizational structure. 10 Janpath and Prime Minister-in-waiting Rahul Gandhi might be able to dominate airtime but cannot win elections. The absence of any strong local leader and a solid organization has been the party’s undoing in the state. The Congress must stop its paranoia of influential regional leaders and allow the state units to flourish by giving them a fair degree of freedom and space.
Two, hubris never pays. The lines between central and state elections are slowly blurring with overlapping electoral issues. The disarray of the party and the government at the centre—a result of growing corruption scandals, policy paralysis, civil society movements, absence of collective responsibility in the cabinet, a weak prime minister, an arrogant set of ministers working at cross purposes—has percolated down to the states, costing it heavily. Local issues obviously remain most important but it is clear that the now savvier voters will no longer forgive or ignore poor governance and corruption at the national level.
Three, do not underestimate regional parties and their presence. It is a symbiotic relationship; you need them as much as they, perhaps, need your support.
For the main opposition BJP, this verdict has been a mixed bag. And to everyone’s surprise, party president Nitin Gadkari, dismissed as a political lightweight so far, has succeeded in bringing some order and electoral success to the party that had sunk to its lowest after the 2004 and 2009 general elections. However, the Tuesday verdict tells the party two key things—one, fighting as a united house and not exposing your internal rifts will certainly keep you in good stead and two, doing better than the Congress cannot be your sole aim as a responsible and powerful national party. The BJP, which was drowning in internal power tussles and embarrassing instances of bickering, fought these elections as a largely dignified and quiet entity.
But the party’s inexplicable and sole focus on doing better than the Congress in UP, instead of focussing on larger and more significant issues, dampened what could have been a better showing with its tally actually falling from 51 in 2007 to 47 now.
Both Congress and BJP need to realise that politics of polarization may well be a thing of the past with development and aspirations of the electorate taking over.In UP, the Congress gamble to lure backward Muslims by promising reservations and the BJP’s initial attempt to revive the Ram Mandir issue only seem to have backfired.
The most glamorous story of this election, meanwhile, has been the rise of a new star—SP chief Mulayam Singh Yadav’s 38-year-old son AkhileshYadav. In fact, he has been largely credited as the architect of the party’s stunning win in UP. Yadav junior brought in a fresh young team, overhauled the party’s anachronistic agenda and took the BSP head-on on development issues. For the first time since the Mandal surge of the 1980s, development and corruption emerged as issues almost as significant as caste.
Though this scribe strongly believes that BSP’s loss was not as much a vote against Mayawati as it was a concerted effort by the upper castes to pin down a Dalit challenge, it is true that the maverick leader did make mistakes in her governance as well as her campaign. The state’s growth rate jumped to over seven percent from just around four percent since she took over and the law and order situation saw a drastic improvement. But Mayawati failed to connect with the people of the state, living largely as an empress in her fortress. In her campaign, her inability to effectively showcase her achievements and convince the voter cost her dearly.
But as they say, there is nothing as unpredictable as the London weather and Indian politics. The stage might have been set for a new order on Tuesday, but it could be anybody’s game in the 2014 general elections. Till then, all bets are off.
The writer has been a New Delhi-based political journalist covering national and state elections, rural affairs and policymaking in India
ruhitewari@gmail.com
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