Scientists expect Kathmandu to be struck with a catastrophic earthquake every 75 years. It’s been 77 years since the devastating earthquake of 1934 rattled the city, so it’s a matter of anticipating the disaster rather than mulling about its possibility.
In a workshop last week, Derick Wood, a volunteer in town to help spread awareness regarding earthquakes asked, “If a truck was heading for you on the highway, would you nonchalantly leave it to God? No! You’d run!” Having lived through a few minor earthquakes during boarding school days in Mussoorie, a troubled fault line along the Garhwalhi hills, I had always naively considered myself prepared. Drop-cover-hold had been hammered into our minds and countless drills had taught me to run to the basketball court for a head count; as easy as that.
Contextualizing earthquakes to that of Kathmandu put things in perspective. The three steps we mastered would be inadequate.
Matt Hamilton, Derick’s colleague, who developed a Nepali manual titled ‘Earthquake Survival’ published by the Believer’s Church Diocese, made the obvious point. The drop-cover-hold steps as is taught to schoolchildren in Nepal today, was designed by the American Red Cross (ARC). When Matt asked who the ARC designed the steps for, the not so obvious point was implied. It was a method developed for America and other western countries. It was not designed with Nepal – with its barely regulated buildings, weak infrastructure compound with the sheer magnitude of earthquakes prone to our country - in mind.
As it so happens, Kathmandu, a capital on once-upon-a-lakebed is not only one of the twenty-one most dangerous cities for an earthquake, but it is actually the number one most dangerous and unprepared city to rest upon such a seismic zone. If that didn’t catch your attention, consider that the fact that Nepali scientists and earthquake experts are simply waiting for the Richter scale to hit 9.0 (and more) for the earthquake that is already two years overdue.
If, as Derick tries to help us comprehend, at 7.0 the quake would be equivalent to bodies violently pushed and at 8.0 to being picked up and hurled, a 9.0 is simply unimaginable.
Imagine this though, at 9.0 we can expect our sleeping lakebed-ed rest to swallow the city – buildings will literally sink, most bridges in the Valley will collapse and if escaping on a flight after the disaster was a thought – do make a note, Tribhuvan International Airport is to become dysfunctional. India, our closest neighbor, will not respond immediately as they will have felt the effects of the same earthquake and by nature, will likely be tending to their citizens before extending their hand across the border.
According to a study conducted in 1997, and based on the 1934 earthquake, it is predicted that 100,000 thousand residents are expected to be killed, 95, 000 injured and 600 to 900 thousand homeless when the next major earthquake shakes our city. However, as there has been exponential growth inside the Valley we can expect those figures to be much higher still.
Tourists and expats will likely be airlifted or be made the priority of their respected homelands and Nepal will have to fend for itself. If the 1934 earthquake that shattered our city, destroyed 95 percent of the water pipes and 70 percent of the buildings – and the population was less than half of today – “fending” is an understatement.
According to a study conducted in 1997, and based on the 1934 earthquake, it is predicted that 100,000 thousand residents are expected to be killed, 95, 000 injured and 600 to 900 thousand homeless when the next major earthquake shakes our city. However, as there has been exponential growth inside the Valley we can expect those figures to be much higher still.
When the earth does quake cover your eyes and head and protect yourself by positioning next to strong objects such as next to bed or desks.The popularized lesson of hiding under desks and beds is responsible for crushing people to death. Doug Copp, Rescue Chief and Disater Manager of the American Rescue Team International suggests the "triangle of lives" created between strong objects more likely to be safe. As soon as the earthquake stops, run to a previously agreed open ground.
Without Internet services and text messaging as an option calling for help alone cannot be your plan of action. Place your essentials – passports, citizenship cards, cash, sleeping bags, t-shirts and flashlights in an “earthquake box.” Don’t forget to throw in enough food and water to last your household for up to five days. When help is days away a handful of nuts may just have to be your lifeline. Discuss with your flat mates or family the strongest room to huddle in, which possible means of escape may be utilized and be absolutely clear where your household will collect.
If the 8.9 earthquake-meets-tsunami in Japan scared you, don’t stop praying, but do start preparing. The National Police Agency of Japan reports over 11,000 dead. Compare that to the 316,000 declared dead on the one-year anniversary of Haiti’s 2010 earthquake of 7.2. Prevention is better than cure, but when at the mouth of danger, it’s time to consider what is the least that can be done at this point to minimize the impact with the resources and capabilities available.
Mother nature cannot be fooled. The same two tectonic plates that nurture our claim to fame, as they continuously collide into each other to grow Mt. Everest at a steady one inch every four years, are also the same faces of the planet earth capable of flattening our city to mere rubble. There is no ritual to appease what is to happen, only minimal measures possible to negotiate the damage.
sradda.thapa@gmail.com
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