After the main opposition Nepali Congress boycotted Constituent Assembly meeting held in parliament’s capacity on Thursday, Dahal asked his emissary Dina Nath Sharma to convey his message that he would reach out to NC immediately. Sharma told chief whips of three main political parties in the CA on Thursday that PM Dahal would address the concerns raised by the NC.
NC was demanding implementation of the nine-point agreement Dahal signed last month. The agreements include returning of property captured by the Maoists and disbanding Maoists’ YCL, among others.
Despite some senior Maoist leaders’ outright rejection to return the property, Dahal has started persuading NC leaders to help run the House smoothly and take part in army integration special committee (AISC). Dahal met with NC President Girija Prasad Koirala’s close aide and nephew Dr Shekhar Koirala Saturday afternoon and assured him that he was ready to reshuffle the AISC and give equal representation to the Nepali Congress in the committee. He also showed his readiness to form a parliamentary panel to settle the property-return issue.
The turnaround is as speedy as it is remarkable. Just last month, presenting his political paper during the party’s national cadres´ assembly, he termed the NC “reactionary” and “evil force”. This change of heart has valid reasons.
The pressure coming from the main ally in the ruling coalition, CPN-UML, and widespread assumption that there is strong possibility of pullout by Madhesi People’s Rights Forum has forced a rethink. And most significantly, the strong "advice" from Indian external affairs minister Pranab Mukherjee to reach out to the NC has played major role, those privy to internal discussions reveal.
“We have been putting tremendous pressure on the Maoists to come back to politics of consensus because constitution-making process would be incomplete without participation of the forces that were so active in the 2006 people´s movement,” says UML leader Bhim Rawal.
Dahal also knows that MPRF will pull out of the government if its internal conflict increases ahead of its national convention and other Madhesi forces like Tarai Madhes Democratic Party (TMDP) go to Tarai with effective anti-government campaign. TMDP´s one-month ultimatum to the government to implement past agreements on Madhesi demands is already three weeks old. The party´s Chairman Mahantha Thakur on Saturday hinted at possible stir in Tarai in the near future.
Not surprisingly, MPRF Chairman Upendra Yadav on Saturday warned of pulling out if Madhesis´ concerns are not addressed. Not only he is wary of any TMDP-generated protests in the Tarai, his strong base, he is fighting a challenge to his leadership from two of his party´s strongmen, Bijaya Gachchhadar and J P Gupta.
One of PM Dahal’s close aides says, “Maoist Chairman knows well that upcoming general conventions of both UML and Forum may change their internal political dynamics and they can walk out of the government any time. Forum’s pullout is most likely, he admits.
Dahal has realized that collapse of his coalition would end his influence in the party as well, though no one has openly challenged his leadership so far. But he has had to make changes in the party´s organizational set up against his will. If the party decides to adopt the path of revolt again, Dahal´s relevance will be over and other radicals will replace him as supreme leader in the party. “That’s why he has to bring the ongoing peace process and constitution-making process to success at any cost,” the aide shares Dahal´s delicate situation with myrepublica.com.
Dahal admitted the fact during his meeting with some newspaper editors a couple of days ago that the entire peace process could have collapsed had he failed to draw a middle-path in the party.
He has realized that pressure from the Nepali Congress, compounded by protest programs by Madhesi political parties could make matters worse. As the Maoists’ Land Reforms Commission starts work, it is almost sure that the Maoists would not be able to handle the situation in the Tarai easily. All the Madhesi lawmakers irrespective of their party line will stand united if issue of land reforms enters the parliament. The past certainly indicates that.
Moreover, if the Nepali Congress, the TMDP and the Forum stick to their stated position of opposing integration of cantoned Maoist combatants into the national army, Dahal knows it will not only be a tough task to accomplish but an impossible one. He is also aware the radicals in his party are impatient over the delay over integration.
So, the Maoist chairman wants to restore, to some extent, the relation with NC and keep the relation with UML intact to tackle possible pressure from Madhes. He wants to adopt policy of engagement even if the NC´s demands are not immediately addressed. NC leaders see Dahal´s suggestion to form parliamentary panel for property return in this light. “Now, we are not in favor of signing yet another agreement but want implementation of the previous ones,” NC Chief Whip Laxman Ghimire told myrepublica.com.
The path the Maoists follow in order to convince the NC to take part in Sunday´s parliament proceedings will decide NC-Maoist relation. And of course, the political course the country takes.
yuvraj@myrepublica.com
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