KATHMANDU, Jan 16: Nepal is heading toward a major demographic shift, with the proportion of children in the population projected to shrink sharply in the coming decades, according to the National Census 2078 BS.
The census data shows that the number of children has been steadily declining over the past few decades, driven by rising inflation, limited household incomes, and the increasing cost of education and healthcare—factors that have prompted families to have fewer children.
As per the 2078 BS census, children now make up just 34 percent of Nepal’s total population, with the total number of children recorded at 9,869,583.
A report titled “The Situation of Children in Nepal,” presented by Binod Sharan Acharya, Director at the National Statistics Office (NOS), projects that over the next 30 years—by 2108 BS—the share of children will decline further to 22 percent. By comparison, children accounted for 46 percent of the population in 2058 BS, underscoring the scale of the demographic shift.
The distribution of children across provinces remains uneven. Madhesh and Lumbini provinces have a higher concentration of children than other regions, placing additional pressure on education, health, and child protection services, Acharya said.
The report shows that about 71 percent of households in Nepal have at least one child. Karnali Province has the highest proportion of such households at 81 percent, while Bagmati Province has the lowest at 62 percent. Notably, 29 percent of households have no children at all, a figure that is relatively higher in Bagmati and Gandaki provinces.
Acharya warned that nearly one-third of households being childless poses a serious long-term challenge and stressed the need for policies and programs aimed at sustaining the child population.
Nepal’s population expected to reach 33.5 million by 2108
Provincially, Madhesh accounts for 24 percent of Nepal’s total child population, while Karnali and Gandaki provinces each account for just 7 percent. The average number of children per family stands at 2.1 in Madhesh, compared to the national average of 1.5, and only 1.1 in Bagmati Province.
Among all children, 53 percent are aged between 0 and 9 years, while around 45 percent live in extremely poor households, indicating that poverty remains closely linked to higher child vulnerability.
The report assesses children’s conditions across multiple dimensions, including demography, education, health, protection, migration, disability, and overall quality of life. While the overall situation has shown improvement, deep regional, social, and economic disparities persist, it notes.
Gender imbalance is also evident. In Koshi Province, there are only 83 girls for every 100 boys. In the 16–17 age group in Karnali Province, however, the girl-to-boy ratio rises to 109, suggesting a comparatively higher mortality rate among boys in that age bracket.
Child marriage remains a challenge
From a child protection standpoint, child marriage, child labor, and unsafe living conditions remain major concerns. The report shows that five percent of children aged 16–17 are already married, with the highest rate in Karnali Province (9 percent) and the lowest in Bagmati Province (3 percent).
Among married adolescent girls, 26 percent are pregnant. Only 37 percent of married children are currently attending school, compared to 89 percent of unmarried children.
More than half—52 percent—of married children have dropped out of school, while 61 percent are economically active. The data indicates that economically active children are three times more likely to be married than those who are not working.
Karnali has highest share of working children
Among children aged 10 to 17, 32 percent are economically active, with 33 percent of them under the age of 14.
Karnali Province records the highest share of working children, with 40 percent engaged in labor. Three out of every four working children come from extremely poor families. The report also notes that around one percent of children have some form of disability.
One-quarter of children lack birth registration
The census further reveals gaps in birth registration. Nearly one-quarter of children in Nepal lack birth registration, with the situation particularly severe in Karnali (87 percent) and Sudurpaschim (83 percent) provinces.
77.7 percent of children live with both parents
On a positive note, most children in Nepal live with both parents, which supports healthier development outcomes. According to Acharya, 77.9 percent of children live with both their mother and father.
Children living only with their mother account for 17 percent, while those living only with their father make up just 1 percent, highlighting the central role of mothers in childcare and upbringing.
The report also notes that suicide-related deaths account for 6 percent among girls and 3 percent among boys, with Gandaki Province recording the highest suicide rate at 4 percent, prompting calls for targeted intervention programs.
