The result did.
The English won emphatically at Sophia Gardens by 169 runs on Saturday with a day to spare, defying all odds and form. They edged the first two days, put daylight between them and Australia on day three, and applied the coup de grace on day four an hour after tea.
Few saw it coming.
England was heavily defeated by New Zealand at Leeds in its last test, was playing four men in their Ashes debut, and two more in their first home Ashes.
The Ashes-holding Australians were riding high from a Cricket World Cup triumph, sweep of the West Indies in the Caribbean, and comfortable warmup wins.
Drawing first blood was key: The winner of the first test has won 15 of the last 17 Ashes series, including the last five.
England captain Alastair Cook couldn't have been more proud.
"It shows if we do the basics well and play with attitude, we can put Australia under pressure," Cook said. "It's not going to work every time, but if we show off our talent, then we're a dangerous side."
They didn't allow any Australians a century, and dismissed them for 308 and 242 on a slow pitch.
"All five of our bowlers were brilliant, relentless on that wicket," Cook said. "We knew there would be something in there on or around off stump if we were good enough to hit there, and we were."
Seamers James Anderson and Stuart Broad were outstanding, with excellent backup from offspinner Moeen Ali (five wickets), and Mark Wood (four).
Australia captain Michael Clarke paid them due credit.
"We've got to find a way to combat the way England are bowling to us," he said. "They had set plans for each (batsman). They were able to put the ball in consistent areas to allow the benefit of swing bowling."
England was in front from the toss, electing to bat first knowing it would be easier in the first innings than the fourth.
Australia knew it, too, then ruined a bright start with the biggest mistake of the test, when wicketkeeper Brad Haddin dropped Joe Root, England's most in-form batsman, before he'd scored. England would have been 43-4. Root scored 134.
Cook's batting this year against the West Indies and New Zealand compensated for his inadequate leadership in the field, but here he failed with the bat and led the team superbly, setting attacking fields, and earning rewards from mixing his bowlers. Ali, whom Cook had previously distrusted, was used more often, and delivered.
Ali was the biggest question mark in the lineup, and ought to have been man of the match. He turned the second day into England's by scoring 77 when Australia wanted quick wickets, then bagged Steve Smith and Clarke. On day three, he combined for 43 with fellow Ashes newcomer Wood to take England's lead past 400, and David Warner's wicket on Saturday sent a shudder through the Australians.
They began the day needing an Ashes-record 412 to win, and just after lunch their fate was sealed.
Australia was 97-1 with Warner and Smith purring at 4.6 runs per over. But right on lunch, Cook gave the ball to the last man fans expected, Ali. His two earlier expensive overs popped the intense new-ball pressure on Australia.
Then Ali sent down a straighter one, Warner messed up playing across it, and was out lbw for 52.
Instead of reaching the break encouraged, Australia was dealt a double blow, on the scoreboard and psychologically.
England extended its lunch for another five overs by devouring world No. 1-ranked test batsman Smith on 33, and Clarke on 4, both of them taken out by Broad, renowned for his late-match inspiration. Only Ian Botham and Anderson have more fourth-innings wickets for England.
With its best batsmen gone, Australia crumbled.
Notably, allrounder Shane Watson was out lbw, the 29th time in 59 tests, and the fifth time he's done it twice in a test. He barely beat the in-form Mitch Marsh to the start, so scoring a combined 49 runs and taking no wickets harmed his chances of making the second test on Thursday at Lord's.
Mitchell Johnson resisted for 77, but he wasn't picked for his batting.
"This game has given us a kick up the backside," Clarke said.
"Any time you get outplayed it makes you see and understand exactly what standard you have to get to to beat your opposition. We haven't taken England lightly. We knew they were going to be tough to beat in these conditions, and we just had a real taste of that. Now we need to find a way to improve."
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Ashes: England wins 1st test by 169 runs inside 4 days
