Nepal is set to become a net electricity importer by 2017 if the Indian ambassador to Nepal, Ranjit Rae, is to be believed. Rae on Friday said that Nepal can import an additional 940 MW of electricity via three cross-border transmission lines by the end of 2017. If this happens, electricity import will outstrip domestic power generation. This in turn will make Nepal more vulnerable to coercive diplomatic tools like economic blockades in the future. In other words, it won't be in the country's national interest. Already, Nepal does 64 percent of its foreign trade with India, and petroleum imports alone cost Nepal over US $1 billion a year. This was one of the reasons Nepal recently decided to import a third of its fuel needs from China; and why there is a growing realization that the country desperately needs to diversify its trade away from India. But in the next few years the dependence on India is likely to alarmingly increase. Government sources Republica spoke to concede their helplessness and say that there is no alternative to importing as much electricity as possible.This is only a stop-gap measure, they assure us, which will be in place only up until the time Nepal becomes self-reliant on electricity. But this is a risky strategy. No domestic hydropower plant above 100 MW will come online by the end of 2017, certainly not the much-anticipated 456 MW Upper Tamakoshi. The risk is that after we start importing more power from India and power cuts in Nepal, as the Indian ambassador envisions, will soon be history, there will be no incentive to develop our own energy. Then there is the cost factor. On Friday ambassador Rae had pointed out how importing power from India made sense since the Indian electricity is cheaper than Nepali electricity. "The average per unit price of Nepal's electricity is Rs 7.52," he said, "while the price of Indian electricity is only Rs 5.84." But he had quoted the price of electricity in India in Indian currency, and the real per unit cost would in fact come to Rs 8.60 in Nepali currency, and so importing more electricity from India will actually add to the bills of electricity consumers in Nepal.
Nepalis businessmen and industrialists will undoubtedly welcome the prospect of uninterrupted power, even if most of it comes from India, and even if it costs a little more. So will most people who have had to spend countless cold nights in complete darkness. All these factors will add to complacency. Everything then will be hunky-dory—until the next disaster strikes. Prime Minster Oli seems to be in a rush to import all the needed electricity from India. That wouldn't be a problem if he also had long-term plans to make Nepal self-dependent on electricity. But Oli, by nature, doesn't think in years and decades. His only focus is the here and now, and on clinging to power at any cost, including through populist measures like ending power cuts by making the country more dependent on India. There is a need for concerted pressure on Oli government—from the opposition, the media, the civil society and the energy experts—to come up with long-term plans to make the country self-sufficient in energy.
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