One, the Maoist government was forced to resign. This view is often held by Maoists sympathizers. What could they have done when daggers were pointed at them from all directions? The only option left for them was to give up. They were betrayed even by their own coalition partner – UML – forget the political parties that were in opposition, they say.
Since NC is interested in protecting the president and the UML president is not interested in the existing coalition, PM Madhav Kumar Nepal can start counting his days.
Two, Maoists were looking for an excuse to quit the government. The row over the sacking of the army chief was just a pretext, a convenient excuse to step down from the government. Dahal could not deliver on anything other than rhetoric and tall promises; fissures were already developing within the party ranks. The hardliners within the party were not satisfied with the lackluster performance; they were pushing for strong measures which were not possible given the nature of the coalition. The only option left for Dahal was to quit the government and save the revolutionary image of the party. If there is anyone to be blamed for the Maoists’ downfall, then it is their own ineptitude and inefficiency. This view is held by the anti-Maoist camp.
Besides these two extreme views, there is also a third view albeit a naïve one. This view takes a normative stand and seeks to explain that the Maoists were stupid to give up so easily, so quickly. No one had asked them to resign. They should have faced a vote of no confidence motion. By the time the motion would have been registered, anything could have happened in Nepali politics. With the Maoists commanding nearly 40 percent of the total strength in the House, they could have easily mustered an additional 11 percent votes to secure a simple majority.
This logic looks plausible. But the consequence would have been unthinkable. Had the Maoists opted for a no confidence motion and survived, it would have invited outright confrontation with the army. The country would have had two army chiefs. This would have created a chaos in the army chain of command. The Maoists would have been accused of hunger to stay in power by any means.
Flip the scenario. If Maoists were to be ousted through a vote of no confidence motion, they would have lost everything. They would have lost legitimacy to rule the country. There would have been left without a moral ground to claim leadership, as they are doing now. Literally, they would have been finished. By voluntary tendering resignation, without any delay, Dahal took the right decision. He is correct when he says that he resigned to avoid confrontation and bloodshed and save the peace process. I am certain that he was speaking the truth when he claimed that there were more people congratulating him for stepping down from power than when he was stepping into power.
The Maoists´ ongoing political agitation is centered basically on fulfilling two demands: (i) correction of the president’s decision to reinstate the sacked armed chief so that the principle of civilian supremacy is established and (ii) their right to lead a national government by virtue of them being the largest political party.
The political feelers coming from the Maoist camp indicates at a possibility of trade off between these two demands. If the presidential decision is corrected (through a parliamentary debate, amendment of the constitution or drafting of a joint proposal), it seems that the Maoists are ready to backtrack from their claim for leadership. They are now saying that, based on political consensus, anyone can lead the government. This is a good sign or an expression of Maoists’ flexibility. Fortunately or unfortunately, this signaling is being taken as the Maoists’ ploy to install Miss Sujata Koirala as the next prime minister (PM) and let the hell loose in Nepali politics.
Mere mentioning of her name has triggered a tremor measuring more than six Richter Scale in Nepali politics. Since politics is all about the game of possibilities, it is possible that the next coalition government could be formed between the Maoists and Nepali Congress (NC). Maoists may be ready to give deputy prime ministership to Miss Koirala. However, it will be suicidal if Maoists were to join the government led by Miss Koirala. What the Maoists can do most is to give an external conditional support to the NC-led government. This is about what can happen with the second demand. Let us now turn to the first demand.
The parliamentary parties, especially the NC and the UML, seem to hold the view that, with the retirement of former army chief Rookmangud Katawal and non-extension of his term, the Katawal chapter is a dead issue. The government has expressed umpteenth time that it is committed to civilian supremacy. Civilian supremacy is an irrelevant issue now. However, for the Maoists this is a matter of principle and need to be debated in the parliament. Given the deadlock, the three main political actors are now engaged in finding out a midway solution, which is reported to be drafting of a joint proposal to be debated in the parliament. One line of thinking is that such a draft could contain a statement saying that the president’s move was unconstitutional but it was triggered by political parties and implemented by the government. This relieves the president and puts the blame squarely on the political parties and the government.
On careful analysis, one can see that the first demand of the Maoists is aimed at the president and the second at the PM. Therefore, there is only one exit point from the ongoing political deadlock – one among the two heads has to make way. Since NC is interested in protecting the president and the UML president is not interested in the existing coalition, PM Madhav Kumar Nepal can start counting his days.
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