Per capita GDP of Nepali citizens is expected to hover at Rs 62,510 (US$717) this fiscal year, up from Rs 57,201 ($706) last fiscal year, according to preliminary figures released by the Central Bureau of Statistic (CBS) on Friday.[break]
The 9.28 percent hike in per capita income may bring some cheer but considering average inflation, which stood at 10.63 percent in the first seven months of the current fiscal year to February 11, Nepalis´ real per capital income is expected to decline by around 1.35 percentage points this year.
This means much of the income hike likely to be seen by Nepalis this fiscal year would be eroded if the government fails to control soaring consumer prices. Per capita income of Nepalis grew by 10.22 percent last fiscal year.
Like in the case of per capita GDP, the GDP growth rate is also expected to shrink this fiscal year.
Preliminary estimates of CBS show that GDP at basic price is expected to grow by a moderate 3.56 percent this fiscal year as against 4.48 percent in the last fiscal year.
“The economic growth rate is expected to slacken this fiscal year because of shrinkage in government spending and fall in production of key agricultural products like paddy and maize,” CBS Deputy Director General Suman Raj Aryal told journalists at a press meet held in Kathmandu. “These reasons, coupled with unsatisfactory performance of other sectors, will hit this fiscal´s GDP growth rate.”
Preliminary estimates show that paddy production is expected to fall by 11.19 percent this fiscal year, while maize production is expected to shrink by 8.27 percent. Reduction in production of these products is expected to bring down growth rate of agriculture and forestry sector to 1.21 percent this fiscal year from 4.94 percent in the last fiscal year, CBS report shows.
The sector is expected to witness positive growth rate despite fall in production of paddy and maize as production of fruits, meat and dairy products, and other livestock products is expected to grow by 20.12 percent, 1.13 percent and 5.60 percent, respectively.
Among others, manufacturing sector is expected to grow by nominal 1.85 percent this fiscal year as against 3.63 percent last fiscal year, while real estate, renting and business activities sector is expected to expand by 1.64 percent compared with 2.97 percent last fiscal year.
However, wholesale and retail trade sector is expected to post a growth of 9.54 percent this fiscal year as against 3.05 percent last fiscal year, because of growth in imports. Rise in trading activities, coupled with rising flow of remittance, is expected to trigger 6.65 percent growth in financial intermediation sector this fiscal year, as against 3.47 percent last fiscal year.
Amidst release of these discouraging figures, the CBS also expects gross domestic savings to fall to 9.34 percent of the GDP, meaning we are spending over 90 percent of GDP on consumption. In the last fiscal year gross domestic savings as percentage of GDP stood at 11.49 percent.
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