India has a long history of influencing various political appointments in Nepal. Most of our Prime Ministers including the recent ones were presumably appointed only after India gave its nod. It is commonly believed that in the post-1990 dispensation no one has gotten into the highest office of the land without India’s blessings. Logically too, it makes sense for India to take an active interest in the appointments of Prime Minister, Home Minister, Home secretary and Security Chiefs for a favorable turn of events this side of the border. Since the border is open, it attaches greatest importance to its security concerns. Thus, for India to take an active interest in the appointments of Minister for Water Resources or the Home Minister, from whom it may expect certain favors, is tenable. But why would it go out on a limb to influence the appointment of the CIAA chief?
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The issue can be viewed from three angles. First, there was no Indian involvement and the political parties decided the issue among themselves by following due process. Second, the whole process was erroneous, as it was guided by the selfish political interests of High Level Political Committee (HLPC) constituents. Third, it was a clear case of external interference.
For the third group, India has started influencing Nepal at lower level of the government since its engagement at the highest level is being gradually neutralized by China and to a lesser extent by Western powers that are increasingly active in Nepal. This line of logic holds that India can use the leverage of the right man in the country’s chief anti-graft body to get politicians, bureaucrats and industrialists to toe its political line. Of course, this is just a hypothesis that awaits further evidence.
Against this backdrop, India is really in the horns of a dilemma. If it interferes in Nepali politics, either at the high or low level, Nepali people’s resentment against it increases, but if it doesn’t its core interests might be compromised. India seems to be in a dilemma on another front too: it can neither accept its involvement in the controversial issues, nor refute them. If it accepts it is against international norms, if it denies it will also be hard pressed to justify its position. This is the reason India needs to calibrate its Nepal relations very precisely.
The author is a former election commissioner of Nepal
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